Sunday, August 17, 2008

Our Rainmaker Will Keep Fay Away

We will be in store for a rather wet week across the Lone Star State. That wet weather includes us right here in East Texas as well. The culprit for our rain will be a cutoff low pressure system currently spinning over eastern Colorado. This low will meander in a southeasterly direction and settle into north Texas. With its close proximity, it will draw in lots of tropical moisture and lift the atmosphere, giving us periods of on and off rain.

We call this feature a cutoff low because it is cutoff from the main flow of the jetstream. The jetstream is still well off to our north, but this low pressure system will keep us cloudy, wet, and cool this week with temperatures running well below normal. This feature will not only bring us rain, but will steer Tropical Storm Fay away from us and take it towards the Florida panhandle. Upper level winds will be out of the southwest, and it is that southwest direction which will pick up Fay and turn it northward.

If we would have had a ridge of high pressure overhead at this time, then Fay would have probably moved much farther west and may have had an impact on our weather. Thanks to our low, we will see our own rain, but stay clear free from Fay.

Our rainfall over the next couple of days will be heavy in spots. This is our exclusive microcast computer model, showing the potential for rainfall that goes through Tuesday evening. Notice that it depicts many areas seeing 0.50" to 1.0" in many locations, with isolated areas possibly seeing as much as 2"-3" of rain. Pinpointing when and where the heavy rain will develop is often difficult to determine. Needless to say, you will want to have your umbrellas on hand this week as we will see periods of rain at times.