One part of a tropical system is the wind impact. As Gustav heads towards East Texas, the storm will be weakening as it crosses over southern Louisiana. By the time he arrives to Toledo Bend, or the state line, Gustav is expected to be a tropical storm. That means winds could still be sustained from 39-69 mph. Because of that, the National Weather Service in Shreveport have Shelby, San Augustine, and Sabine counties under a Tropical Storm Watch. In Lufkin and Nacogdoches, we are under a Wind Advisory meaning winds could gust over 40 mph. Keep this in mind that a strong wind gust can knock down trees, which could lead to power outages. Once again, things could change if the center of the storm is farther north or south. Stay tuned!
Sunday, August 31, 2008
Posted by Brad Hlozek at 9:37 PM
Here locally, we have been placed under a Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening. At this time, it includes all the counties shaded in blue. Those counties consist of Angelina, Nacogdoches, Cherokee, Rusk, Panola, Shelby, San Augustine, and Sabine counties. We will more than likely see more counties added to a Flash Flood Watch as Gustav draws closer. Preliminary indications are we could see anywhere from 5-8" of rain, with isolated areas possibly getting up to 10". The reason for these high totals is that Gustav is expected to slow down and move through East Texas. Due to its slow movement, we are talking about lots of rain falling at a rapid pace in a short period of time.
Posted by Brad Hlozek at 7:36 PM
Hurricane Gustav is a category 3 hurricane this Sunday morning with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph. The image to the left is what we call a visible satellite image. This is what the storm would look like if you were in outer space and looking down on the earth. The visible satellite always has the best details of cloud formations. The only trick is it can only be seen during the day when the sun is actually out. Once the sun sets, it fades away into black, only to re-appear when the sun rises the next day.
Posted by Brad Hlozek at 8:11 AM
Saturday, August 30, 2008
Posted by Brad Hlozek at 9:28 PM
Posted by Brad Hlozek at 2:12 PM
Friday, August 29, 2008
The idea of Gustav slamming into Louisiana is becoming more likely. The computer models really have not budge much since Thursday, which is a good sign of consistency. This all gives us a little more confidence in the forecast. As you can tell by the graphic on the left, most of the models take Gustav into the central Louisiana coast sometime early Tuesday. What is more interesting to us in East Texas are the models that slow the storm down and push it westward, right into our area. This would be the worst case scenario, producing damaging winds, tornadoes, and heavy rain. However, the other option is the storm continues northwest with the center of the storm passing closer to Shreveport. We will still see some impact but it would not be as bad. Something to watch for as we get closer to landfall.
One other thing to watch for. When Gustav hits the central Gulf of Mexico, there is something called the loop current. This feature is a layer of warm, ocean water that goes deep below the surface. This can add more fuel to a hurricane. In fact, this is what likely caused Rita and Katrina to become monster storms in the Gulf. If Gustav can cross over this loop current, category 5 strength could happen. This would make things much worse for Louisiana.
Posted by Conley Isom at 9:13 PM
Posted by Conley Isom at 6:29 PM
Gustav is now pulling away from the island of Jamaica and is getting ready to put on a show. What do I mean? Gustav is entering an environment that could lead to rapid intensification. He is a strong tropical storm right now but could become a category 2 hurricane later tonight. The storm looks rather impressive already on satellite. As for the path, it has not changed much. The hurricane center still calls for a possible landfall early Tuesday, west of New Orleans. Even the big easy might not take a direct hit, it could still cause lots of damage because the east of hurricane is referred to as the dirty side. Why? That is the side that tends to have the strongest winds, storm surge, and tornadoes.
One thing that I have been thinking about is the angle the storm will come in at. It looks like the center of the storm could cross into East Texas by Wednesday. Of course, by then, the storm should only be a depression but heavy rain, tornadoes, and some winds up to 40 mph may still occur. That is why I encourage to get prepared. Have supplies ready to go and a plan of action. Once again, there is still a lot of uncertainty so you need to stay up to date on the storm.
Posted by Conley Isom at 11:04 AM
Thursday, August 28, 2008
Posted by Conley Isom at 4:44 PM
Posted by Conley Isom at 8:01 AM
Wednesday, August 27, 2008
As the 10 PM advisory comes out, some interesting things have happened with Gustav. The storm's center jogged southwestward! This will probably cause a big shift in the computer models and in the forecast. We will have to wait and see. I still expect it to become a major hurricane in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico sometime over the weekend. Stay tuned!
Posted by Conley Isom at 9:51 PM
After making one landfall on Haiti, Gustav has not really moved in the past 24 hours. The interaction with land has weakened the storm below hurricane status. However, it is beginning to push westward now and as the center of circulation pulls away from land, the forecast calls for Gustav to return to a hurricane. Another thing that has not changed much since yesterday is the track. Most computer models agree on taking Gustav just south of Cuba, then bending northwest into the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. After that, the forecast becomes murky. On the graphic to your left, I want you to focus on the cone of uncertainty, not the black line. This means Gustav could be from the upper Texas coast all the way to the west coast of Florida. We just don't know yet. The models have a tendency to shift back and forth so we really won't have a good idea on where Gustav will go until Friday and over the weekend. The bottom line is you need to stay updated on the storm, but do not panic or worry. Still a lot of time to watch Gustav.
Posted by Conley Isom at 10:14 AM
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
Posted by Conley Isom at 3:56 PM
Monday, August 25, 2008
Let me start by saying it is way too early to be able to accurately predict where Gustav will go. The video below is to show you the uncertainty we have with this storm, and almost every tropical system. Through the week, we should get a better handle of what the future holds.
Posted by Conley Isom at 9:51 PM
As Fay brings heavy rain and tornadoes to parts of the southeast, our next tropical features is ready to become Tropical Storm Gustav. The graphic to your left shows this storm in the Caribbean, just south of Hispaniola. It is moving to the northwest at about 15 mph. The environment around soon to be Gustav is very conducive to tropical development, with warm waters and low wind shear. As for the forecast, this one will be another difficult one to track. Some models take it north into Florida, close to the same path Fay took. Other models send the storm towards the Yucatan and possibly into the Gulf of Mexico. It is way too early to tell where this storm will go but I want you to be aware and stay tuned to KTRE for the latest.
Posted by Conley Isom at 9:10 AM
Sunday, August 24, 2008
Posted by Brad Hlozek at 4:18 PM
Saturday, August 23, 2008
Posted by Brad Hlozek at 7:50 PM
Thursday, August 21, 2008
First off, I want to say thank you to everyone who left a comment about where the snake was. Lets me know you are watching! Secondly, the majority of people were able to pick it out. As you can see, it is circled in yellow. However, imagine if you were out walking in the woods. Do you think you would be able to see it, especially if it was not moving? Consider this a warning to be extra careful walking, hiking, or hunting. Thanks to all the rain this week, a lot of animals are beginning to come out, including snakes, frogs, and those pesky love bugs! On the flip side, the rain has added a lot of moisture to East Texas soils so hopefully we will not have to talk about Burn Bans or 100 degree heat anytime soon. Before you know it, the first big cold front of the year will arrive.
Posted by Conley Isom at 9:22 PM
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
Our weather watcher in Huntington, Candye, sent me an interesting picture from a friend, Gerry, who works for the Texas Forestry. Thanks to the rainy weather, it seems like snakes have been more active. This can lead to more encounters for hikers, hunters, or anyone outdoors. The photo to the left has a copperhead in it. Do you see it? Let me know by leaving a comment below. On Friday, I will post the same picture with the snake highlighted so check back then. If you get it right, I might mention your name on air! Good luck!
Posted by Conley Isom at 4:32 PM
We continue tracking Tropical Storm Fay, who is dumping lots of rain on the state of Florida. Rainfall totals have exceeded a foot in many locations and Fay is no where close to being done. From the afternoon's advisory, Fay is moving north at a very slow pace of 2 mph. The center of the storm is hugging the east coast of Florida, so strengthening is not anticipated. Eventually an area of high pressure to the north of the system will drive Fay back west across northern Florida and into the southeast. There is a very small chance that Fay could emerge over the Gulf of Mexico, which could allow her to gain some power. Otherwise, she will be a big rain maker for places that would not mind seeing the rain. However, too much rain will lead to flooding problems.
Fay's impact on East Texas will be very minimal. Our surface winds will switch to the north as what is left of her moves closer and we may see a few isolated storms, but that is it. We are about to hit the peak of hurricane season so you know the next storm is on the horizon.
Posted by Conley Isom at 3:52 PM
Monday, August 18, 2008
Tropical Storm Fay continues bring wind and rain to parts of south Florida. It looks like Fay will not be able to strengthen into a hurricane before pushing ashore on the southwest coast. However, we may not be done talking about Fay anytime soon! The image to your left shows the different computer models and their forecast for Fay. Look at what happens when the storm moves into north Florida. There is an upper level high that is expected to build in to the north of the system. This would force Fay to the west and possibly into the Gulf of Mexico. This is something the models started showing today, with more and more coming on board with this solution. Do not worry, we are still safe. The upper low that is bringing us rain should help turn Fay northward eventually. The question will be when.
Elsewhere in the tropics, there is one wave in the middle of the Atlantic that has shown the potential for development. This feature should be near the Lesser Antilles by weeks end so we will have to watch for our next storm soon.
Posted by Conley Isom at 8:40 PM
As the rain moves in Monday evening, this is only the beginning of a three day rain event across East Texas. We will see multiple rounds of rain, leading to some healthy rainfall totals. Our in house computer model, Futurecast, shows about 1-2 inches through Wednesday evening. There could be isolated spots as high as 3-4 inches! Right now, our soils can take in a lot of the rain but I am concerned about the potential for Flash Flooding by midweek. Remember, if you approach a road that has water over it, Turn Around, Don't Drown! Flash flooding kills more people every year than any other type of severe weather. As the rain accumulates, let us know how much you receive. Click the comment link below to leave your rain total and community.
Posted by Conley Isom at 4:29 PM
Sunday, August 17, 2008
We will be in store for a rather wet week across the Lone Star State. That wet weather includes us right here in East Texas as well. The culprit for our rain will be a cutoff low pressure system currently spinning over eastern Colorado. This low will meander in a southeasterly direction and settle into north Texas. With its close proximity, it will draw in lots of tropical moisture and lift the atmosphere, giving us periods of on and off rain.
We call this feature a cutoff low because it is cutoff from the main flow of the jetstream. The jetstream is still well off to our north, but this low pressure system will keep us cloudy, wet, and cool this week with temperatures running well below normal. This feature will not only bring us rain, but will steer Tropical Storm Fay away from us and take it towards the Florida panhandle. Upper level winds will be out of the southwest, and it is that southwest direction which will pick up Fay and turn it northward.
If we would have had a ridge of high pressure overhead at this time, then Fay would have probably moved much farther west and may have had an impact on our weather. Thanks to our low, we will see our own rain, but stay clear free from Fay.
Our rainfall over the next couple of days will be heavy in spots. This is our exclusive microcast computer model, showing the potential for rainfall that goes through Tuesday evening. Notice that it depicts many areas seeing 0.50" to 1.0" in many locations, with isolated areas possibly seeing as much as 2"-3" of rain. Pinpointing when and where the heavy rain will develop is often difficult to determine. Needless to say, you will want to have your umbrellas on hand this week as we will see periods of rain at times.
Posted by Brad Hlozek at 7:47 PM
Friday, August 15, 2008
You can watch my discussion on Fay on the video above. I also wanted to share part of the official discussion from the National Hurricane Center. It will show you the uncertainty that exists with this storm.
"BECAUSE WE DO NOT KNOW WHERE THE CENTER IS...THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION USING CONTINUITY AND THE MOTION OF THE OVERALL CLOUD MASS IS 275 DEGREE SAT 12 KNOTS. FAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. BUT IN 2 OR 3 DAYS...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REACH THE GULF OF MEXICO ERODING THE RIDGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE FAY TO TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ONE SHOULD MENTION HERE THAT IN GENERAL...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE. BEFORE I AM COMMITTED TO SHIFT THE TRACK FARTHER WEST...I WOULD RATHER WAIT TO SEE IF GUIDANCE BECOMES MORE STABLE FROM ONE RUN TO THE NEXT.IN SUMMARY...BOTH OFFICIAL FORECAST AND GUIDANCE SHOW AN INTENSIFYING TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WE MUST PAY VERY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE."
Posted by Conley Isom at 9:53 PM
It took a while but the Hurricane Hunters finally found enough evidence to classify our tropical disturbance as Tropical Storm Fay. Sustained winds are at 40 mph and she is moving west at about 15 mph.
Fay has a long road ahead of her. As I talked about in my last post, the terrain of eastern Cuba has tall mountains. This will help disrupt the storm and keep it from strengthening. So the official forecast keeps Fay at tropical storm status through the weekend. A gradual turn to the north is expected but not guaranteed. I have seen this many times before when a tropical system never takes that turn. I do not expect Fay to reach Texas, but she maybe a little more in the eastern Gulf of Mexico than the cone of uncertainty shows. Something to keep in the back of your mind.
Posted by Conley Isom at 4:04 PM
Thursday, August 14, 2008
There is an area of low pressure that is moving through Puerto Rico Thursday evening. Hurricane hunters were in the storm all afternoon but could never find a close, low level circulation. So the storm has not been named just yet. However, I bet this will happen on Friday. The next name on the list is Fay. The computer models generally agree that if Fay develops, she will head into the Bahamas over the weekend and turn northward, near the east coast of Florida.
I have been watching this storm all week and every time it looks like it will blow up, it doesn't. One factor has been the dry air that keeps getting pulled into the circulation. That can keep thunderstorms from developing. Another factor over the next few days will be the high terrain of Haiti and eastern Cuba. If she is too close to, the mountains will tear her apart. There is still a lot of uncertainty so you will want to stay tuned for the latest. As for the soon to be Fay heading towards Texas? Not going to happen. This will be a Florida/East coast storm.
Posted by Conley Isom at 9:20 PM
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
Posted by Conley Isom at 4:03 PM
Some things never go away. It is that time of year again when an email is circulated to millions of people claiming that in August of (insert current year), the planet Mars will make a close approach to the Earth. Therefore, making Mars the same size as the moon. The email goes on to say this will not happen again until 2287 or something like that. Is it true???
NO WAY!!! THIS COULD NEVER HAPPEN AND EVEN IF IT DID, WE WOULD BE IN BIG TROUBLE!!!
For more information on this hoax, check out Snopes.com.
Posted by Conley Isom at 3:11 PM
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
As we talked about yesterday, the rain moved in overnight and it rained for most of the morning across all of East Texas. Our exclusive Rain Vision shows the heaviest rain was across our northern counties with up to 5 inches in Cherokee county. We did not see as much rain to our south but still everyone picked up at least an inch of rain. This kind of rain event was nice because we didn't have to worry about Flash Flooding since the rain gradually fell over an extended period of time. I hope this is enough to lift the few burn bans we have in place. The good news, if you want more rain, is that more is in the forecast for the upcoming weekend!
How much rain did you get on Tuesday? Let us know by clicking the comment link below.
Posted by Conley Isom at 3:14 PM
Monday, August 11, 2008
It looks like summer is beginning to lose its grip, allowing for high rain chances across East Texas. One disturbance will be swinging through overnight and into the day on Tuesday. This will lead to widespread showers and storms. Our computer model, Futurecast, is showing very heavy rain to our north but I would not be surprised to see some rain totals over one inch here in deep East Texas. This will be some welcome rain as the soils were beginning to really dry out. Nacogdoches county is still under a burn ban but this rain should help cancel that. There is also a slight risk of severe storms on Tuesday so you will want to stay tuned if warnings are issued. Don't forget to check the Live Doppler 9 Network and we will have more updates to come. Also, be looking for a tropical update this week. Things could get really interesting by the end of the week!
Posted by Conley Isom at 3:52 PM
Sunday, August 10, 2008
I know many of you have asked me 'Is there more rain in sight?' Fortunately, there is and we could be getting a good soaking rain in parts of East Texas over the next couple of days.
This image shows the 48 hour rainfall accumulations across Texas and the Southern Plains region. This goes from Sunday evening through Tuesday evening. Keep in mind that this is just a model indicating the potential rainfall we could see across Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas and Oklahoma. Notice that 3-5 inches is quite common in Arkansas with several areas seeing 1-2 inches through the forecast period. For us, I think we will be on the leading edge of possibly picking up an inch or more of rainfall through Tuesday.
The threat for heavy rain is due to a slow moving cool front that will slowly take its time in advancing southward through the forecast region. Due to its slow movement, that will allow mutliple rounds of heavy rain to develop across north and northeast Texas. This batch of heavy rain will then slowly makes its way into our northern counties and then should begin to overspread much of our viewing area by late Monday and Tuesday.
With the added cloud cover and rain around, these are the forecast high temperatures around the state for Monday. Notice that areas such as Dallas and Shreveport will only reach the upper 80's, rather than the triple digits they have been accustomed to seeing over the past couple of weeks. We should see low 90's with upper 80's in our northern counties. Hopefully, everyone can cash in on some rain and get their lawns and gardens all hydrated once again.
This rainfall would also be good for the Burn Bans we currently have in effect for Nacogdoches, Houston, Trinity, and Sabine counties. Perhaps if these counties can get some good soaking rains, they may be lifted. At this point, we will have to wait and see how things play out.
Posted by Brad Hlozek at 7:44 PM
Friday, August 8, 2008
Posted by Conley Isom at 3:33 PM
Thursday, August 7, 2008
There are now four East Texas counties in our viewing area under a Burn Ban. Nacogdoches and Trinity counties now join Houston and Sabine counties as the four counties that prohibit outdoor burning.
The main reason is a lack of rainfall and the triple digit heat we saw last week. That sun baked the parched soils and really allowed things to dry up.
While your county may not be under a burn ban, it still would be wise to not do any outdoor burning in the near future until we get some rain.
Fortunately, we have a chance of seeing a some rain as we head into Friday, courtesy of an early August cool front.
While it won't bring us a cooldown, it will get close enough to bring us some rain. The best time for these showers and storms to develop will be during the middle to latter part of the afternoon. If you do get some rain, that will help keep temperatures slightly cooler, and more importantly, give your lawns and gardens a much needed drink of water.
Posted by Brad Hlozek at 5:57 PM
Tuesday, August 5, 2008
Edouard has been downgraded to a depression tonight and will become just an area of low pressure on Wednesday. It is currently centered near the Lake Livingston/Onalaska area, and will continue to drift slowly to the west/northwest over the next 24 to 48 hours. This will bring heavy rains to parts of Central Texas, which could use some considering they are in a much more severe drought than what we have currently in East Texas.
While Edouard will weaken and move into Central Texas on Wednesday, we will still be close enough and have enough moisture in place to generate some rain showers in the heating of the day. After tomorrow, though, we start to dry things out on Thursday as temperatures start to go back up into the upper 90's.
This will be our last post and update on Edouard. Please feel free to leave comments and let us know about what you liked or didn't like about our coverage.
Posted by Brad Hlozek at 10:23 PM
Tropical Storm Edouard is slowly weakening this afternoon and will continue to do so now that it is moving over inland areas.
The 1pm Advisory has Edouard still as a tropical storm, but winds have come down from 60mph to 50mph. Look for him to continue to drop in wind speed and intensity for the remainder of the afternoon. At this time, Edouard is located about 40 miles east of Houston and is moving off to the west-northwest at 8 mph. This forward speed has decreased from last night and earlier this morning. As a result, look for heavy rainfall to be the main threat with this system for areas around the Brazos Valley and the Hill Country over the next 24 to 36 hours.
This ended up being a good situation for us locally, as we got some rain, and more importantly, saw an end to that heat wave which was bringing us the triple digit temperatures.
Posted by Brad Hlozek at 2:29 PM
Tropical Storm Edouard is now over land with the center of circulation located about 40 miles west of Port Arthur,TX and 45 miles northeast of Galveston Island. As a result of Edouard making landfall further up the coast, it spared Galveston and many coastal residents down the coast.
As of the 10am advisory, Edouard is still at tropical storm with winds at 60mph. It will continue to weaken throughout the day as the fricition of the land will deprive it from its heat energy source.
This is what Edouard looks like on our Live Doppler 9 Network this morning. You can tell by the cyclonic curvature of the radar where he is centered. However, due to it being asymetrical and rather erratic, it did not have a very definitive eye like we see with many tropical storms and hurricanes.
So far, we have seen some outer rain bands affect Polk, Tyler, Jasper, and Newton counties. It is in these areas where we will pick up the most rain.
At this point, areas along a line from Crockett to Lufkin to San Augustine may see some light to moderate rain as some outer rain bands try to work their way a little farther north. With that said, rainfall accumulations should remain on the light side.
Posted by Brad Hlozek at 9:59 AM
Posted by Brad Hlozek at 4:37 AM
Monday, August 4, 2008
Another interesting feature to note is the projected path as indicated by all the different computer models. Most of them have Galveston Island as their main target for landfall Tuesday. However, tonight, some of the models have shifted Edouard's track farther up the Texas coast.
Posted by Brad Hlozek at 10:21 PM
The 4pm advisory came out, and although Edouard has looked better organized, its winds are still only 45mph. It continues drifting slowly to the west at 6 mph.
This general westward trend will continue over the next 12 to 18 hours.
This is a look at the satellite and radar composite just after 4pm this afternoon. We have noticed showers and storms beginning to fill in on the north side of the circulation. When we see an increase in convection around the low pressure center, that often indicates that the system is strengthening. So while Edouard remains fairly weak at this point, I would not be surprised if our 10pm advisory this evening has it just a bit stronger.
Speaking of 10pm, make sure you check back as we will have another update and discussion on Edouard.
Posted by Brad Hlozek at 4:59 PM