Friday, August 29, 2008

Friday Evening Update

The idea of Gustav slamming into Louisiana is becoming more likely. The computer models really have not budge much since Thursday, which is a good sign of consistency. This all gives us a little more confidence in the forecast. As you can tell by the graphic on the left, most of the models take Gustav into the central Louisiana coast sometime early Tuesday. What is more interesting to us in East Texas are the models that slow the storm down and push it westward, right into our area. This would be the worst case scenario, producing damaging winds, tornadoes, and heavy rain. However, the other option is the storm continues northwest with the center of the storm passing closer to Shreveport. We will still see some impact but it would not be as bad. Something to watch for as we get closer to landfall.

One other thing to watch for. When Gustav hits the central Gulf of Mexico, there is something called the loop current. This feature is a layer of warm, ocean water that goes deep below the surface. This can add more fuel to a hurricane. In fact, this is what likely caused Rita and Katrina to become monster storms in the Gulf. If Gustav can cross over this loop current, category 5 strength could happen. This would make things much worse for Louisiana.