Friday, August 15, 2008

Evening Update on Tropical Storm Fay


You can watch my discussion on Fay on the video above. I also wanted to share part of the official discussion from the National Hurricane Center. It will show you the uncertainty that exists with this storm.

"BECAUSE WE DO NOT KNOW WHERE THE CENTER IS...THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION USING CONTINUITY AND THE MOTION OF THE OVERALL CLOUD MASS IS 275 DEGREE SAT 12 KNOTS. FAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. BUT IN 2 OR 3 DAYS...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REACH THE GULF OF MEXICO ERODING THE RIDGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE FAY TO TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ONE SHOULD MENTION HERE THAT IN GENERAL...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE. BEFORE I AM COMMITTED TO SHIFT THE TRACK FARTHER WEST...I WOULD RATHER WAIT TO SEE IF GUIDANCE BECOMES MORE STABLE FROM ONE RUN TO THE NEXT.IN SUMMARY...BOTH OFFICIAL FORECAST AND GUIDANCE SHOW AN INTENSIFYING TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WE MUST PAY VERY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE."

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