Monday, March 8, 2010

Unsettled Weather and Strong Storms

The first half of our work week will be rather unsettled with chances for rain and thunder each day through Wednesday.

One disturbance will provide us with rain for the rest of our Monday, dragging in a very weak cold front or wind shift line. As the front stalls on top of us on Tuesday, we could see a few rain showers and isolated thunderstorms across our eastern counties.

Since we are dealing with a Pacific storm, the airmass behind this system will allow our temperatures to rise, instead of drop, like we typically see.

We will then be watching another upper level disturbance approach East Texas on Wednesday. This disturbance, unlike the one we are seeing today, will be much stronger and take more of a southern track. We will also have more humidity and moisture to work with.

The figure to your left is a computer model's plot of the dewpoints on Wednesday evening at 6pm. The yellow and orange contours represent the higher moisture content at the surface. Notice how the eastern half of the state will have the higher dewpoint values as this next storm sytem moves in.

As a result of more moisture and higher instability, the Storm Predicition Center out of Norman, OK, has placed portions of East Texas, southern Arkansas, and much of Louisiana under a "Slight Risk" for severe thunderstorms during the day on Wednesday.
Keep in mind that spring is just two weeks away. We are entering the time period in which we are transitioning from winter to spring. It is during the spring months in which we see more severe weather events as the storm systems are stronger and have more energy to work with.
I will continue to fine tune the forecast later tonight on your East Texas News. Make sure to tune in for updates on the rainfall and threat for storms through mid-week.