Goodbye Summer, Hello Fall !!

Today was the official last day of summer for 2008. By 10:44am Monday morning, we will say goodbye to summer and ring in the fall season.

When you think of fall, you probably think of leaves changing color, cooler temperatures, and shorter days.

For us in East Texas, however, we usually don't see those signs take place until late in October and early November.

So what does fall mean? It is during the day tomorrow in which we will have 12 hours of daylight and nearly 12 hours of darkness. The sun at noon will be directly over the equator, giving the earth an equal distribution of solar energy.

The scientific term used to describe the first day of fall is "Autumn Equinox." The word equinox derives from the latin words aequus (equal) and nox (night). [Source: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equinox] Hence, that's why we have an equal amount of darkness and daylight on this day.

Our Autumn Equinox occurs right around September 21, depending on the tilt of the earth's axis and the sun angle with respect to earth.

Something to make you laugh!

This made me laugh! I am not a big fan of Sonic food but I do like their shakes and slushes.

Ike Wind Gusts

We have been asked a lot about the peak wind gusts from hurricane Ike. Keep in mind that the observing stations in both Lufkin and Nacogdoches went out before the peak of the storm hit. However, the Angelina County Airport measured a gust of 69 mph before losing power. That station is back on as of Monday afternoon. The one at the airport in Nacogdoches is still down and we hope it gets back on soon. You can see on the above graphic, Beaumont had the strongest winds at close to 90 mph. Even though they weren't close the center, they were on the dirty side, which was felt all the way to Lake Charles. Ike was a big storm and more than likely will have his name retired. Also, early estimates are saying that Ike could become the third costliest hurricane, behind Katrina and Andrew.

More Photos From Ike Damage

Here are some more photos of damage reports sent in from our viewers through our "See It, Snap It, Send It" section at ktre.com.

This first photo illustrates a tree missing a house as it fell down away from their house in a westerly direction. Keep in mind the winds around Ike were blowing from east to west. Therefore, their house just missed it as they were situated in the right direction, just to the east of the tree. I guess you could say this resident sure was lucky.

Not only did trees fall on houses and streets, but also got cars as well. This vehicle's front windshield was completely destroyed as this tree toppled right on top of it.

This picture was a common site among many East Texans as many large trees were completely uprooted and toppled to the ground. In many cases, they would litter the roadways, making travel very difficult for many people this afternoon.

Remember that if you have any photos you'd like to share with us, you can do so by going to our "See It, Snap It, Send It" section at ktre.com. We will try to add more to our Weather Blog and may even show some of yours on our newscasts over the next few days.

What Ike Left Behind

These were photos taken by SKYWARN Storm Spotters from Nacogdoches on Saturday, when Ike wreaked havoc. We would like to send our thanks to Carey Libby and Michael Vinther for taking these pictures and presenting them for us to show you.

These scenes were quite common across East Texas as Hurricane Force winds knocked down trees and scattered tree limbs and debris across roadways and yards. It was the hurricane force winds that led to numerous power outages, especially in our central and western counties.

These pictures come courtesy of our "See It, Snap It, Sent It" profile on ktre.com. If you have any fascinating shots you'd like to share with us, please send those photos to the "See It, Snap It, Sent It" portion of our webpage.

New Tornado Watch

This watch goes until 7:oo PM for central and eastern counties. This will be mainly east of the center of the Ike. It is going to get worse before it gets better.

Local Reports

Please leave a comment below if you lose power or have damage.

Ike Making Landfall Soon!

AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF LARGE HURRICANE IKE WASESTIMATED BY NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 29.0NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.7 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES...35 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS. THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THEEYE SHOULD BE MOVING OVER THE GALVESTON AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

THE NATIONAL OCEAN SURFACE STATION AT THE GALVESTON PLEASURE PIERRECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 85 MPH...137 KM/HR.

Tornado Watch

A Tornado Watch is now in effect for all of our viewing area until 10 AM Saturday. As the outer rain bands from Ike spin into East Texas, they will be capable of producing quick tornadoes. They will not last long but can cause a lot of damage. If a warning is issued for you county, take cover in a bathroom or interior closet and stay there until the warning is over with.

Radio Coverage

We just found out that KICKS 105.1 will carry our coverage through the day on Saturday. So if you lose power, you will be able to listen to our updates. Big thanks to them for working with us!

County by County Break Down

The center of Ike is expected to cross to the west of Lufkin and Nacogdoches early Saturday morning. Below is a list of our counties and what we think you will see.

Houston County: The eye of the storm may cross very near to Crockett so some of the worst damage may occur. Winds will be sustained 40-70 mph with gusts up to 80 mph. Numerous trees will be blown down and power outages are likely. Rainfall will be 3-6 inches.

Trinity County: Will be close to the center of the storm so winds will be 40-70 mph, gusting up to 80 mph. Rainfall totals 3-6 inches.

Polk County: You guys will feel the effects first before the rest of us, so shortly after midnight. Strong winds 40-70 mph and numerous trees down and power outages. Rainfall will be 3-6 inches.

Tyler County: Farther south so will feel the effects early. Will be farther away from the center of the storm so winds will be 30-60 mph. Strong enough to cause damage, trees down, and power outages. Isolated tornadoes are also possible. Rainfall will be 5-8 inches so flooding is a concern.

Angelina County: The worst part of the storm will be from 3 AM through most of the day Saturday. Winds sustained 40-60 mph, with some stronger gusts to 70 mph. Isolated tornadoes will also be possible. There will probably be some tree damage and scattered power outages. Rainfall will be 5-8 inches so flooding will be a concern, especially in low lying areas.

Nacogdoches County: The worst part of the storm will be from 4 AM through most of the day Saturday. Winds sustained 40-50 mph, with some stronger gusts to 60 mph. Isolated tornadoes will also be possible. There will probably be some tree damage and scattered power outages. Rainfall will be 5-8 inches so flooding will be a concern, especially in low lying areas.

Cherokee County: The impacts will be later in the day on Saturday. Winds 40-60 mph and heavy rain up to 3-6 inches. This will cause some damage.

Shelby County: The storm will hit later Saturday morning. Winds will be 20-40 mph, with gusts up to 50 mph. Isolated tornadoes are a threat. Rainfall totals 5-8 inches so flooding is a concern.

San Augustine County: The worst part of the storm will be from 4 AM through most of the day Saturday. Winds sustained 40-50 mph, with some stronger gusts to 60 mph. Isolated tornadoes will also be possible. There will probably be some tree damage and scattered power outages. Rainfall will be 5-8 inches so flooding will be a concern, especially in low lying areas.

Sabine County: You guys will be the farthest away from the center of Ike but that means the tornado threat and flood threat will be highest here. 5-8 inches are expected. Winds will still be strong from 20-40 mph, with some higher gusts.

Jasper County: Farther south so will feel the effects early. Will be farther away from the center of the storm so winds will be 30-60 mph. Strong enough to cause damage, trees down, and power outages. Isolated tornadoes are also possible. Rainfall will be 5-8 inches so flooding is a concern.

Updated Models Not Changing

The forecast track models from this morning indicate that Ike will make landfall shortly after midnight very near Galveston Island.

What's interesting to note is that these models haven't budged much over the past couple of days. That, combined with the fact these models are all bunched together are giving us much certainty that landfall will occur near Galveston. As a result, we are not expecting any drastic turns to the north before landfall.

Remember that three years ago, Rita made a last minute shift to the north and made landfall further up the coast. This time, it doesn't look like a dramatic shift will take place. That doesn't mean the center of Ike could make landfall a little further up the coast from Galveston, it just means that if it does, it won't be too much farther than what the models are indicating.

Remember, forecast tracks from the National Hurricane Center are updated every 6 hours, at 10 and 4 o'clock both in the morning and evening hours. You can get the next forecast track update at 4pm this afternoon. Of course you can get this information and the latest coordinates on Ike by going to our Hurricane Center.

Thursday Evening Update

Hurricane Ike is still heading towards the Texas coast with landfall expected near Galveston very early Saturday morning. The computer models have not changed that much so it is very likely we will be impacted from Ike. Current thinking is strong winds from 40-60 mph, isolated tornadoes, and heavy rain are all threats. The winds may cause the most damage with downed trees and power outages. Rain will be heavy in some spots which could lead to some flooding. However, since the storm will be moving fast through East Texas, that might limit the flooding. Overall, we cannot stress enough, be careful and smart through this storm. We made it through Rita, and we will make it through Ike.

Live Chat

Join us Thursday night from 8:15 - 9:00, for a live chat on Hurricane Ike. Look for it on the homepage of KTRE.com and the weather page. Chief Meteorologist Conley Isom will answer your questions about Ike so you can be ready for the storm.

We plan to more live chats through this event so stay tuned to KTRE.com for the latest on Hurricane Ike!

From the comments below....Travel to San Antonio is fine but you will have to deal with some traffic. As for Shelby county, the effects will be later in the day on Saturday but winds 40-70 mph will be possible, isolated tornadoes, and heavy rain.

What to Expect from Ike

It looks like we are going to see a big impact from Ike as he slices through the area on Saturday. The graphic to the left shows you the areas of risk. Our western and southern counties will have the highest risk of seeing the most damage. Here in Lufkin and Nacogdoches, we are in a moderate risk. The eastern counties are under a low risk. However, let me stress that everyone in our area will be effected by the Ike.

As for those impacts, here is what we are thinking. During the day Saturday, winds will be sustained from 35-75 mph, which is tropical force. There could be a few wind gusts higher than that. This will cause numerous trees to be blown down and thus scattered power outages are expected. Isolated tornadoes will also be a threat. Tornadoes in a hurricane are quick and small but can cause lots of damage if it hits a highly populated area. Rainfall totals will average 3-6 inches and since the storm will be moving so fast, hopefully flooding will not be a big concern.

As we go into storm mode, I want to encourage everyone in East Texas to be careful. As long as you have food and supplies, you will be fine. We went through Rita and we will make it through Ike.

What to Expect

From the National Weather Service in Houston, on the what they expect in Houston, Trinity, and Polk counties:

POORLY CONSTRUCTED OR UNSECURED MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED.
OTHERS WILL HAVE SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WALLS...AND
WINDOWS...AND WILL LIKELY BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL REPAIRED. HOUSES
OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE PARTIAL WALL AND ROOF
FAILURE...AS WELL AS BLOWN OUT WINDOWS. UNSECURED LIGHT TO
MODERATE WEIGHT OUTDOOR ITEMS WILL BECOME PROJECTILES...CAUSING
ADDITIONAL DAMAGE AND PERHAPS INJURY. MANY AREAS WILL HAVE POWER
OUTAGES...HUNDREDS OF WIRES WILL FALL...TRANSFORMERS WILL
POP...AND SOME POWER POLES WILL BE PULLED DOWN.

ROTTING LARGE TREES WILL BE UPROOTED...MOST COMMON ON SATURATED
GROUND. NUMEROUS LARGE BRANCHES OF HEALTHY TREES WILL SNAP. UP TO
ONE HALF OF NEWLY PLANTED CROPS WILL BE DAMAGED.

Coastal Counties Evacuating

Southeastern parts of Houston are now under a mandatory evacuation as of Thursday morning. These include the following people living in these zip codes: 77058, 77059, 77062, 77520, 77546, 77574, 77586, 77598. Since many of us have friends and family in Houston, make sure they are ready for this hurricane.

Also, Jefferson and Orange counties, which is the Beaumont area, has also issued mandatory evacuations this morning. This will directly effect us here in East Texas, since these folks will be heading north towards Lufkin and Nacogdoches.

Stay tuned to KTRE and KTRE.com for the latest on Hurricane Ike.

Wednesday Afternoon Model Update

All of the midday computer models are in and not much has changed since yesterday. Most of the models are clustered just north of Corpus Christi. However, one of the more dependable models, the GFDL, is now one of the farthest north. It brings Ike in just southwest of Houston as a category 3 storm. This would be bad news for not only Houston but we would see a bigger impact here in East Texas. Still three days away from landfall and still plenty of time to wait and see. So far, it is not looking too good for us. Stay tuned!

Wednesday 10 AM Advisory on Ike

As of late this morning, Ike is still a category one hurricane but the winds are a little stronger now, up to 90 mph, and the pressure is about 5 mb lower. When you look at the satellite imagery, you can see how large Ike is. In fact, tropical storm forces winds extend out over 200 miles from the center! The motion has been wobbly during the overnight period but a motion to the west-northwest is expected to continue for the next 24-36 hours. After that, a more westward motion will send it closer to the Texas coast. The overall track has not changed much, with landfall near Corpus Christi very early Saturday. The latest model runs are slowly coming in and by 1 PM, we will see if there are anymore major shifts.

I want to leave you with one thought. Typically, hurricanes make landfall to the right of where the official forecast is. That happened with Rita, Katrina, and most recently Gustav. I am not saying that will happen but something to think about.

Tuesday 10 PM Advisory on Ike

Ike is the storm that will never give up. After being disrupted by Cuba, not three hours after coming into the Gulf of Mexico, Ike has a new eye wall! It is small right now but it will grow in time. This tells me that Ike is about to explode as it enters the central Gulf of Mexico. The conditions are too ideal for this thing not to gain strength. As for the latest forecast, it still calls for a possible landfall near Corpus Christi, late Friday night. I want to wait and see what the morning computer models show because they may shift again. The National Weather Service flew their upper level jet to gain valuable information of what is steering Ike. This data will go into the models and this should help narrow down what part of the Texas coast will see landfall. Don't count out a Houston/Galveston hit just yet. Of course, that would be worse for us here in Lufkin/Nacogdoches. We hope to have a better idea Wednesday morning so I will try to post then. Do not take your eyes off this hurricane!

Models Shift....Again!

As we saw yesterday, the computer models for Ike shifted south, closer to Brownsville and Corpus. As of Tuesday afternoon, the models shifted again, this time farther north towards the middle Texas coast. They are also showing a bend towards the north, and this is in response to a cold front diving through the Plains by the end of the week. This shows us two things. One, the uncertainty remains high since the models are just now showing this. We need to wait 24 hours before we completely bite on this. Two, here in East Texas, we still need to be prepared. This would put us closer to the storm and even though the center may stay southwest of us, we will see some kind of impact from the storm. We should know more Wednesday afternoon as Ike heads into the central Gulf of Mexico. I will have more on Ike later tonight. Stay tuned!

A Shift in the Models Tonight

Both of these images are computer model plots projecting the path of Hurricane Ike. The one on the left was from Sunday afternoon's run. Notice how most of the models have Ike moving towards either the upper Texas coast or the southern Louisiana coast.

This evening, notice how many of the same models have shifted their track further towards the south, taking it towards the lower to middle Texas coastline.

For instance, look at the blue line from day 1. This is one of the reliable models that the National Hurricane Center uses in predicting the paths of tropical systems. On Sunday, this blue line (GFDL Model) takes Ike into Morgan City, Louisiana, similar to what Gustav did. Notice this evening in later model runs how the blue line now takes Ike into the central Texas coast, near Corpus Christi.

This is a sign that the models are having a difficult time picking up on Ike and the steering currents coming into play that will ultimately dictate where the storm will head.

So what does the shift in the different forecast models mean? To be frank, not much. However, I like to look at trends. If the models tomorrow and again on Wednesday stay rather consistent, then you might be able to put some more trust in these models.

At this time, that does not mean that the upper Texas coast is spared. After all, the models tomorrow could revert back to what they showed Sunday, which would put East Texas in a risk area. Only time and consistency in the models will tell where Ike may be headed by this weekend.

More Trouble Brewing in the Tropics

We are in the peak of hurricane season and have another active hurricane to focus on this week. Hurricane Ike is a strong category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds this evening. It has already battered The Bahamas, and is now set to bring heavy rains and mudslides to Cuba on Monday. We do expect Ike to weaken as it moves over the mountainous terrain of Cuba. Due to its westward motion, it should weaken Ike from a major hurricane to a weak hurricane or strong tropical storm.

Our interests will turn towards Ike as it emerges in the Gulf of Mexico by mid-week. At that time, we expect it to strengthen once again as it encounters some deep, warm waters. The big question is "Where will Ike go from there?" The answer is unclear as there is a wide range of possibilities. These are some of our different computer models showing the forecast track of Ike. Notice how some of them turn it northward towards the Alabama/Mississippi coastline, while others take it westward towards the lower Texas coast. Needless to say, there is a lot of uncertainty with both the strength and track of Ike from mid-week to next weekend. Make sure you keep it tuned right here for updates on Ike. Remember, you can get the latest advisories and forecast track by heading to the Hurricane Center on our webpage.

An Early Taste of Fall

While fall has not officialy arrived, we have had an appetizer the last couple of mornings as temperatures have fallen into the lower 60's, and in some cases, the upper 50's. These were the morning lows today. Lufkin, Jacksonville, and Jasper bottomed out at 61°, while Nacogdoches got all the way down to 59°. While you did not need the jackets, it was sure nice to be outside taking that early morning stroll or jog around the neighborhood.

The reason why temperatures have been able to cool off at night is because we have a dry airmass in place. Unlike humid air, dry air tends to cool off fairly rapidly at night and warm up rather quickly during the day. So with the humidity staying away for Sunday, look for another cool start to your day.

As we head into next week, however, look for the humidity to return, leading to overnight lows climbing into the 70's rather than the lower 60's.

Exclusive Video of Gustav

A young East Texan, Michael Vinther, who is an avid storm chaser, went to Louisiana to chase Hurricane Gustav. He is a trained storm spotter through the National Weather Service and is a member of SKYWARN for Nacogdoches county. Below is a sample video from his trip. To see more clips, check out our See It, Snap It, Send It section of KTRE.com. Also, Michael provided a summary of his experience.

"We left Nacogdoches, TX around 7am Monday morning for Lake Charles, LA to intercept hurricane Gustav. It was nearly impossible to find gas anywhere and every city was deserted. When we arrived in Lake Charles, we looked at our Mobile Threat Net radar system and decided to take I 10 to Lafayette, LA. When we got there, the winds picked up and it started to rain (nothing too bad). We were interviewed by a Lafayette TV station. About 15 minutes later, the winds really picked up and the cities power went off. We saw signs and traffic lights sway. Then the winds started to gust to 80-90mph. We saw roofs be ripped off trailers, traffic lights fall down and more. It was amazing how powerful hurricanes can be, and this was only at cat. 2!
The strong wind gusts had ripped the cups off our anemometers and nearly pushed us off the road. After the worst had passed, we helped many people that were injured or having problems with their cars. We returned around 8-9 pm." -- Michael Vinther

Hurricane Ike Explodes!

Edit: The 10 PM advisory has Ike as a category 4 hurricane!!!!

At 4 PM, Wednesday afternoon, Ike became a hurricane. Four hours later, Ike is now a major, category three hurricane! All I can say is unbelievable!!! Ike took advantage of a near perfect conditions to become a powerful storm. The environment ahead of Ike is not as perfect so some weakening may occur. However, the latest forecast from the hurricane center has Ike a category 4 storm as he approaches Florida over the weekend. There are still two options for Ike. Option one, he turns north and follows the path Hanna is about to take. Option two, keeps trucking west and finds itself in the middle of Gulf of Mexico. Not only for our safe, but for Louisiana and Mississippi's sake, Ike chooses option one. However, that means Florida and the east coast may feel the wrath of Ike. We will keep a close eye on Ike as we head into the weekend!

Ike is now a hurricane!

...IKE BECOMES THE FIFTH HURRICANE OF THE 2008 ATLANTIC SEASON...

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEARLATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.7 WEST OR ABOUT 670 MILES...1080KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30KM/HR....AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHTAND EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST ON THURSDAYNIGHT AND FRIDAY...TAKING IKE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THEWEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IT IS TOOEARLY TO DETERMINE WHAT IF ANY LAND AREAS MIGHT EVENTUALLY BEAFFECTED BY IKE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THESAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING ISFORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROMTHE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160MILES...260 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.

The Tropical Train!

As I mentioned in my last post, there are several other tropical systems in the Atlantic that we are tracking. First is Hanna, which could become a category one hurricane and strike either Florida, Georgia, or South Carolina. Right now, it seems the forecast has South Carolina taking a hit from Hanna. Second, is Tropical Storm Ike. This storm is small in size but do not let that fool you. The forecast calls for Ike to become a category 2 hurricane over the weekend and head into the Bahamas and Cuba. Ike is something I am worried about because the weather pattern might shove him into the Gulf of Mexico next week. It is way too early to predict if we will have an impact from Ike. You will want to stay tuned! Finally, we have Tropical Storm Josephine that developed off of Africa. This storm is way, way out there and we will have lots of time to watch her. The forecast keeps Josephine as a tropical storm as she crosses the Atlantic. No telling where she will go from there. I have said it many time, and I will say it again. Welcome to the peak of hurricane season!

Tropics Update

Gustav is our main focus tonight and Tuesday, but I wanted to make you aware of two other storms out in the tropics. One is hurricane Hanna, the bottom left image, which is effecting parts of the Bahamas. This storm is expected to turn northwest and head towards either the Florida, Georgia, or Carolina coast. The other storm is Ike, the bottom right image. Ike could be a player next week with some models sending him into the Gulf of Mexico. Stay tuned!

Flooding Potential

Besides the winds gusting up to 50 mph, flooding is a big concern with Gustav. Our in house, computer model is showing the possibility of 6-8 inches across Lufkin and Nacogdoches. There could also be a few spots higher than that. Higher amounts could fall to our northwest around Center and towards to Shreveport. I would advise against traveling too much on Tuesday. Remember, if you approach a road that has water over it, turn around and don't drown!

We will be here through out the night and plan to have updates on KTRE.com. Also, look for a live chat later where you can submit questions, comments, and concerns. On air, we will do cut ins about once an hour as new data comes into the weather center.

Gustav Now Approaching Louisiana Coastline

Hurricane Gustav is now approaching landfall this morning, sitting about 80 miles to the south-southwest of New Orleans. It should make landfall within the next few hours, bringing 18-20 feet wave heights, hurricane force winds, and isolated tornadoes to southern Louisiana. This is the visible satellite view showing just how broad of a system this storm is.

Although we have lots of sunshine out there this morning, look for those clouds to be on the increase as we head through the late morning and early afternoon hours. The outer rain bands from Gustav should begin to move into our eastern counties by later on this afternoon, beginning what will be a very wet and windy period.