Dolly is showing signs of organizing this early afternoon. The center of circulation is easily seen on visible satellite with storms starting to wrap around it. The conditions are very good for Dolly to become a hurricane soon. The winds in the upper levels are very light so wind shear is almost zero and the sea surface temperatures are a few degrees above normal. So the next 24 hours will be interesting to see what happens.
As for the track, the Hurricane Center bumped the official track slightly north, with a possible landfall just north of Brownsville. A hurricane watch has been posted for the lower Texas coast, from Brownsville to Port O'Connor. A tropical storm watch extends as far north as San Luis Pass, just west of Galveston. I agree that the lower Texas coast will see the highest impact from Dolly.