Thursday, February 3, 2011

Small Changes to our Forecast

After looking over model data all day and discussing the winter storm with other meteorologists, here is the lowdown on what you can expect where you live.

In my last post, we talked about how most of us would see snow, with our southeastern quadrant the most likely areas to receive ice accumulations.

Overall, that same line of thinking is still there, with just some subtle changes in the forecast.

This is an updated image that will be shown tonight at 10pm.

This map shows not only precipitation type, but the wintry precipitation amount as well.

If you live along and north of a Crockett to Nacogdoches to Center line, we are expecting all snow to fall from the sky overnight. The farther north you go, the lower the snowfall. Once you get south of that line, the potential for snow accumulations goes up by a couple more inches.

Meanwhile, we think communities in and near Hemphill, Pineland, Zavalla, Colemesneil, Jasper, and Newton have the potential to see a snow, sleet, and freezing rain mix. With that mixture could come the threat for significant ice accumulations of 0.25-0.50". If that pans out, then roads become icy, power outages become more frequent, and tree limbs are going to snap and fall.

Here's the tricky part. What kind of wintry mix will take place around Corrigan, Lufkin, Nacogdoches, Chireno, Etoile, Huntington, and San Augustine areas? After all, these areas are kind of in between the areas of all snow and the wintry mix of ice, and sleet.

Our line of thinking is that many areas in Angelina and Nacogdoches counties will see mainly snow. However, there could be some sleet and freezing rain mixed in from time to time. How much of the freezing rain that mixes in with the snow will determine how much ice, and ultimately, how treacherous driving conditions will be in these general areas.

As always, make sure to visit our Winter Weather Center on our homepage at We will have all the latest on the warnings and advisories around East Texas. You can also view our live streaming radar and so much more.