Thursday, August 5, 2010

NOAA Releases Updated Hurricane Forecast

After two full months in the 2010 hurricane season, things have gotten off to a fairly quiet start. We have only seen one hurricane (Alex), and two very weak tropical storms in Bonnie and Colin.

NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminstration) had forecasted a very active hurricane season in late May. In case you forgot, here was their official forecast.

Named Storms: 14-23
Hurricanes: 8-14
Major Hurricanes: 3-7

Earlier today, NOAA released their updated forecast for the remainder of the 2010 season. Here are the updated results.

Named Storms: 14-20
Hurricanes: 8-12
Major Hurricanes: 4-6

The one thing that stands out is that they are still calling for a very active year. The only thing that was trimmed back was the upper bound part of the range. This was due to the fact we have not seen as many storms develop early in the season.

Don't let the slow start fool you. Keep in mind that we are now beginning to enter the peak part of hurricane season. The time period from mid-August through the end of September is the most active time for tropical systems to develop, with the peak occuring around September 10th.

The combination of warmer than normal sea surface temperatures and a relaxing of the upper level winds (wind shear), leads climatologists to believe the tropics will be heating up very soon.