Tuesday, August 10, 2010

Tropical Depression #5 Takes Form in the Gulf

After a couple of days of constant shower activity just off the coast of Florida, Hurricane Reconnaisance finally found a closed low at the surface late this afternoon.

That was enough to allow our fifth depression to form this 2010 season.

This depression will move to the west-northwest in the days ahead. It will more than likely become Tropical Storm Danielle sometime during the day on Wednesday as it strengthens even furthur.

The image to your left shows our different computer model projections as to where this system will go.

The one thing that stands out is that most of them converge the storm on the Louisiana coastline on Thursday afternoon. Even if the storm track is slightly off, it should remain to our east, keeping us on the drier (cleaner) side of the system.

At this point in time, we don't expect T.D. #5 to become anything stronger than a tropical storm. Even though the sea surface temperatures are very warm in the Gulf, wind shear will remain high, keeping this system from forming into a hurricane.

This wind shear was the same thing that really destroyed Bonnie just about three weeks ago in that same position. While this system may be stronger, it will be a minimal tropical storm at best as it approaches the Gulf coast states.

Our impacts back here at home will just be a few rain showers wrapping around the counterclockwise circulation. Due to the position of the storm, it may not be big enough to allow our Heat Advisories to expire.