Getting Turkey Week Off to a Wet Start

Just like clockwork, another storm system out west will be moving into the Southern Plain states late Monday and into early Tuesday, giving Deep East Texas another good chance for beneficial rainfall.

Just like the past couple of weeks, there is a "slight" risk for severe weather. That means some of the embedded thunderstorms within the heavier downpours could contain small hail and damaging winds. At this time, the severe threat is rather low due to the timing of this system.


(Image courtesy of: Hydrometeorological Prediction Center)


The image above was taken from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC). This is the rainfall potential from Monday evening at 6pm through Tuesday evening at 6pm. Notice that the heaviest rainfall will stretch from Oklahoma to Arkansas and into southern Missouri.

The shading of blue painted on the map, represents 0.50"-1.0" of rain on average for the Pineywoods. It should be noted that some areas may receive higher rainfall amounts, but overall, it looks as if Mother Nature will send her blessings on us right before the Thanksgiving holiday.

Timing is Perfect

The timing with this storm system will work in our favor in regards to Thanksgiving travel this week. The storm will exit stage right on Tuesday afternoon, meaning Wednesday will be a nice day for all the travelers hitting the roadways.

Thanksgiving Day is also looking nice, with mostly clear skies and cooler temperatures.

But as we have seen this month, nothing stays the same for too long. Another quick moving low pressure system will bring back warmer temperatures and another chance for rain by Friday and next weekend.

More Burn Bans Lifted, But We Need More Rain

Several counties have lifted their burn bans over the past week, mainly as a result of recent weekly rainfall, and the added pressure from citizens who rely on burning their own trash.

Of our main 13 counties we serve in the KTRE viewing area, 8 of them have now lifted their burn bans, with more likely to follow suit in the days ahead.

Even though burn bans have been lifted, that is not necessarily a sign of an improvement in the drought situation.

During the month of November, we typically average 0.15" of rain per day. That means that in a week's time span, we should receive over an inch of rain just to stay on par with average rainfall for the month.

So far this month, we have had two heavy rain events that have fallen on back to back Tuesdays. While the rain is much welcome, we need even more just to put a dent in the drought. Keep in mind that many of our weather watchers have been reporting 0.40-0.75" of rain with these storm systems, with just a few areas reporting in over an inch.

If you do the math, the drought has not improved one bit. What we need is 2-3 days of steady, persistent rain per week in order to cut into the 17" deficit we now have for the year.

So while the weekly rainfall is nice, it would be even better if we had multiple days of rain, rather than just one day per week.

National Weather Service Confirms Two Tornado Touchdowns

National Weather Service meteorologists out of Shreveport surveyed the damage from Tuesday's severe thunderstorms on Wednesday and concluded that two tornadoes touched down in Deep East Texas.

The first twister touched down at 2:02pm, five miles southwest of Mount Enterprise in northern Nacogdoches county. It moved northeast and caused tree damage along FM 950 and FM 3272 before lifting just west of Highway 259. According to the National Weather Service, the tornado lifted just west of Highway 259 before touching down a second time along FM 3198 near FM 3191. As the tornado continued its second track, it ended up causing widespread tree damage near Highway 84 and FM 3191 before lifting at around 2:26pm.


This first tornado was rated an EF1, with estimated wind speeds of 90 mph. It had a maximum width of 150 yards and had a path length of 12 miles.


(Brad Hlozek cuts in to programming to keep viewers informed on tornado warnings on Tuesday afternoon.)

About an hour later, another tornado touched down in the same general vicinity as the first one. This time, it occurred at 3:34pm, three miles west of Mount Enterprise, just north of Highway 84. This tornado uprooted trees along its journey, before dissipating at 3:43pm just west of the intersection of FM 95 and Highway 315.

Unlike the first twister, this second one was weaker and rated an EF0, with estimated winds of 80 mph. It had a maximum width of 70 yards and a path length of 6 miles.

The best news to report out of these two tornado touchdowns on Tuesday was that there were no injuries or fatalities, as they stayed over mainly rural areas.

Heavy Rain, Strong Storms Likely Tomorrow

Another storm system and cold front is headed for East Texas tomorrow night. However, unlike the past few fronts, this cold front and storm system will be more potent, meaning the threat for heavy rain and severe weather will be possible.



While we may not see much rain for the first half of your Tuesday, that will change by the late afternoon and early evening hours as a trough of low pressure moves through the Pineywoods.

As you can see by our in house Microcast computer model, a squall line (fancy term for strong line of storms) is expected to rumble through Deep East Texas by the late afternoon or early evening hours. It is along this line of storms where there will be a threat for damaging winds ( > 50 mph), small hail, and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning strikes.


It has been quite a while since we had a threat for severe weather. Therefore, make sure to heed warnings if your county gets placed under one tomorrow.


Now to the Bright Side

It should be noted that the severe weather threat is low; what is more likely and beneficial for us all, is the rainfall potential.

Our Microcast computer model shows rainfall will vary from place to place; however, average rainfall amounts will range from 0.25" to as much as an inch in spots.

The return of moisture to the area will aid in rainfall potential with this particular storm system, as it helps increase the instability across the region.

Our rain chances will taper off quickly from west to east Tuesday night as the cold front pushes through Deep East Texas. The front will clear out the skies and usher in some cooler weather for the remainder of the week.

Solar Activity Means More Northern Lights

The sun is displaying more sunspots and will be very active over the next few weeks. This is due to the CME (coronal mass ejection) that takes place along the surface of the sun.

(Photo courtesy of NASA from Sep. 2011)

Due to these solar flares, Northern Lights will be visible across the night sky over the next couple of weeks.

According to Space Weather, the sunspot, named AR1339, is not yet directly facing Earth but it will be turning toward our planet in the days ahead.

The sunspot group has already caused a large CME, but it was not directed at Earth. As the sunspots travel across the sun's face in the next few weeks, the coronal mass ejections could be directed at Earth causing aurora displays.

If your wandering eyes happen to catch these Northern Lights, feel free to snap a picture and submit it to sendit@ktre.com. That will upload the picture to our "See It, Snap It, Send It" photo gallery at ktre.com.

NPP Satellite Launches Successfully

This past Friday, America's newest polar-orbiting satellite launched into space successfully. The National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) is a joint project between NASA and NOAA to better help make better forecasts.

The NPOESS Prepatory Project (NPP) satellite includes five brand new instruments that will help collect more information on weather data around the world. This includes both surface observations on land and over the oceans.

According to NOAA, NPP will be able to orbit earth every 102 minutes, flying 512 miles above the surface of the earth.

This newly advanced satellite will be able to help diagnose the atmosphere with more detailed information, which will help meteorologists be able to forecast big weather events (severe weather outbreaks, winter storms) with better accuracy and with more advanced notice.

It will be a few more months, however, until the NPP satellite will have data available to view. According to NOAA, it will be 90 days until the satellite begins its operation and replaces the NOAA-19 satellite.

For more information on the NPP satellite, you can go to http://www.noaa.gov/.

The Seesaw Ride Continues

Our fall weather continues to operate like a seesaw, with wild swings in temperatures from day to day and from week to week.

After a seasonably cool week last week, it has been anything but that over the past several days. A southeast wind and a ridge of high pressure has made for unseasonably warm weather over the past few days, with highs climbing back into the middle and upper 80's.

While the seesaw has been tilted upwards, it will be going down rather quickly, starting tomorrow.

Another strong Canadian cold front will be diving south through the Southern Plains on Thursday and will provide us with some pockets of rain followed by a drop in the temperatures.

While the rain chances tomorrow will be rather high, the rainfall totals won't be all that impressive. The image to your right is from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. It shows the 2 day rain total between now and Friday evening. Notice the swath of heavier rain will be confined from Oklahoma to Arkansas and then further up the Mississippi River Valley, towards Kentucky and Ohio.

Our guidance suggests a tenth to a quarter of an inch as an average rain total for the Pineywoods of Deep East Texas, with isolated areas receiving slightly higher amounts.

Temperatures on your Thursday will be warmest in the mid-to-late morning hours, before falling throughout the course of the day.

Make sure you take your umbrella and light jacket with you as you head off to work or school in the morning. Even though you may not need it to start the day, you will probably need both by the afternoon.