Thursday, January 5, 2012

First Significant Rain of 2012 on the Way

After enjoying nearly seven inches of rain this past December, the rain faucets have dried up for the past couple of weeks.

However, it looks as if our first significant rain event for the new year is just day's away and it could not come at a better time considering we are still in a severe drought.

If you recall, December was wet because we had an active jet stream overhead, bringing us heavy rain from low pressure systems located to our west.

After Christmas, the weather pattern changed and shifted back to the one we saw most of last year. You remember that one, right? The one where we saw dry conditions and unseasonably warm weather. That is why temperatures, by in large, have been warmer than normal over the past week and is also why we have been dry for a couple of weeks now.

Our computer models are showing things may be looking up once again, in regards to better rain chances returning to the Piney Woods.

The Setup

The graphic image above shows what the upper level wind pattern will look like by Monday evening of next week. Notice that we are expecting a potent area of low pressure to set up shop in West Texas. Due to its position to our west, we will be able to see the moisture levels increase signficantly, aiding the development of widespread rainfall. Anytime we are east of low pressure, we have a good shot at rain as that is the favorable area for lift and precipitation.

Heavy Rainfall Amounts Possible

The rainfall for Monday and Tuesday of next week will be heavy and it looks as if we will see not one, but perhaps two days of beneficial rainfall. The biggest factor as to why we will see some good rain amounts is due to the fact that this low pressure system will slow down and be slow to move across the state. Anytime you get a slow moving system, the potential for heavy rain is there.

It's early, but the prognostications at this point indicate 1-2" of rain are likely with this next storm system next week. We anticipate the rain starting as early as Sunday night before coming to an end Tuesday evening.

Make sure you find that umbrella for early next week because you will need it.

Stay with StormTracker 9 weather. We will continue to keep you updated on our heavy rain threat for early next week. I know I'm excited to see more wet weather head our way after a break in the action.