Tuesday, July 26, 2011

Tropical Wave Set To Move Into The Gulf

An area of disturbed weather, which has been affecting portions of Cuba the past few days, has now emerged in the western Caribbean Sea, and is now setting its sights on the Gulf of Mexico.

This tropical wave has shown signs of getting better organized, and now has a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Anytime there is a tropical wave that enters the Gulf of Mexico, we must watch it very closely, even if models don't think it will strengthen in the short term.

At this time, hurricane hunters are expected to fly into this system tomorrow to see if it has a closed circulation of low pressure at the surface. If they find this on their flight out to sea, it will be given the name "Don," which is the next name on our Atlantic hurricane list for this year.

The image to your right shows the various computer models we have access to in the StormTracker Weather Center. Notice how they all take this wave into the western Gulf over the next few days. Regardless if this system develops, it looks as if this area of low pressure will track anywhere towards the lower to middle Texas coastline by Friday.

If this scenario pans out, we could see some enhanced rain chances for the drought stricken state, including us in Deep East Texas.

If our tropical wave does develop, make sure you check our hurricane center for all the latest coordinates, forecast track, satellite images, and more. And of course, we will have comprehensive analysis on KTRE-TV, your East Texas News and Weather Leader.