Some Areas are Now Drought Free

After spending most of 2011 in an extreme to exceptional drought, parts of Deep East Texas are now drought free as a result of the recent heavy rainfall in the Piney Woods.This image above shows the current state of the drought. The shading of dark brown represents where we still have a "D1 Moderate" drought in place. This is an improvement and an upgrade from the "D2 Severe" drought status from a couple weeks ago.

The areas west and east of the Moderate drought are now drought free for the time being. This includes the communities of Chester, Colmesneil, Woodville, Jasper, Browndell, Pineland, Hemphill, and Newton to name a few. Basically we are talking about Tyler, Jasper, Newton, and Sabine counties as areas that are now drought free.

These locations that are drought free should come as no surprise considering it was in these areas where 5-7" of rain fell this past Tuesday. As you recall, we had several reports of flash flooding in these areas.

It is quite remarkable how fast we have come out of our drought in just the past four months, when at that time, we were in the worst drought category possible.

We will catch a break from the wet weather for the next several days as no storms loom on the horizon.

Weak Tornado Touches Down in San Augustine County

The National Weather Service has confirmed a small tornado touched down Sunday in East Texas. Monday morning, meteorologists from the Shreveport Weather Forecast Office surveyed damage following weekend thunderstorms in San Augustine and Sabine counties.

A weak twister, ranked an EF-0, touched about 5 miles northwest of San Augustine, just east of Highway 96. A large tree was discovered uprooted west of FM 3230. Large limbs and tin from a chicken house was peeled back near FM 1279. A National Weather Service survey team reports the tornado tracked north northeast before lifting just south of the San Augustine/ Shelby County line. Officials determined the twister's path is 50 yard wide and traveled for about 8 miles.

Winds speeds were estimated between 65 and 85 miles per hour, based on damage.
According to the National Weather Service, the Sabine County Sheriff's Office also reported wind damage around 3:00 p.m. Sunday. Deputies spotted downed trees about 5 miles southwest of Hemphill.

Current Weather Pattern Reveals Spring

The talk in and around town has been about the warmer than normal conditions and the winter that has gone mild in East Texas. Even I have to look at a calendar on occassion just to make sure that today is March 1st and not May 1st.

With the warm weather that has been locked in place for much of the country, that spells trouble when storm systems pull out of the Rockies and into the Plain states.

This past Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, we saw a widespread severe weather outbreak take shape across mid-America. The graphic to your left shows all the severe weather reports, whichi include tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds.



With the main storm track off to our north, we only saw a few showers here in the Piney Woods.


Another Storm on its Heels

Even though we have a lull in the storm pattern right now, it won't last long. Another storm, currently in the Rockies, will pull eastward tomorrow, providing another round of severe weather to the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys.
This weather pattern we are currently in is very indicative of what we would see in late March and April, which is our main severe weather season.

Due to the fact most areas, including us at home, are so warm, that only means more fuel and stronger storms when these systems push across the country.

What We Can Expect

We will feel a glancing blow from our next storm tomorrow. A cold front will arrive on our doorstep Friday afternoon and Friday evening. Along the front, there will be a broken line of thunderstorms that develop. A few storms could be strong, but no widespread severe weather is expected at this time.

Once this front moves through, we will clear out and cool off just in time for the weekend. The clearing skies will also come with some lower humidity and much more pleasant conditions.

Round 2 For our Neighbors up North

Unfortunately for our friends and family to our north and east, it appears they will be under the gun once again for severe storms on Friday. Not only could they see large hail and damaging winds, but scattered tornadoes will be possible as well.

2012 Off To a Wet Start

Whenever I go to the gym, barber shop, store, or restaurants in East Texas, the one thing people like to talk about is the recent heavy rains that have invaded the Piney Woods.

After enduring one of the driest years on record, I guess you could say that is a good thing to be discussing in these parts.

After another heavy and widespread rain event on Saturday, many areas in Deep East Texas have now received anywhere from 7 to 10 inches of rain so far in 2012. Let me repeat that, most areas have received right around 8 inches of rain in the last month and a half.

Looking at the Statistics

Remember that we ended 2011 with about 30 inches of rain. Some areas only saw about 26-28 inches, depending upon location. Based on the rain we have already recieved through mid-February, that equates to nearly a third of how much we received all of last year.

I don't know if that is an indication of how dry it was or just how wet it has been around the Piney Woods this winter.

Seeing the Impacts of Recent Rains

Going back to December, we have had over 15 inches of rain. The wet winter has replenished dried up lakes and vegetation, as well as reduce the fire threat for most of the state. You may have even noticed plants and flowers already blooming earlier than normal.

Short Term Outlook

In looking at the short term outlook, it appears that a very active and stormy weather pattern will continue for the great state of Texas. Even though every storm may not bring heavy rain, there will continue to be areas of low pressure moving in from the western half of the country. As long as we have this pattern in place, we will continue to see normal to above normal rainfall.

Texas Forest Service to Provide Tax Workshop

The Texas Forest Service will be providing a timber tax workshop for landowners looking to recover from drought and wildfire losses from 2011.

This workshop will be held at the Lonnie and Arthur Temple Civic Center in Diboll on Friday, February 17th from 8am-5pm.

During this workshop, landowners will be given tax advice on how to best cope with federal laws geared towards the loss of timber.

If you have any questions or would like to register for this event, you can contact Monica Jadlowski at 979-458-6630.

National Weather Service Confirms Tornado Touchdown in Mt. Enterprise

In the wake of Wednesday's severe storms, the National Weather Service out of Shreveport has confirmed that the damage in and around Mount Enterprise was that of an EF1 tornado, with estimated winds between 86 and 110 mph.

(Note: This is the image captured on StormTracker Live Doppler Network minutes before the line of storms produced a tornado around Mount Enterprise this past Wednesday.)

According to the National Weather Service, an EF1 tornado touched down just to the southwest of Mount Enterprise in southern Rusk county at 10:32am. The tornado moved through town and stayed on the ground for one and a half miles and had a path width of 175 yards.

Some of the damage consisted of a large tree falling on a house, while another residence had a carport torn off, injuring one person.

The National Weather Service also found that numerous trees were snapped and uprooted throughout the town. There was also a small retail building that had their roof torn off and throw across State Highway 259.

Heavy Rain and Strong Storms Likely Tomorrow

A strong area of low pressure will be moving into West Texas later tonight, setting the stage for some widespread, heavy rainfall to move back into the Piney Woods on Wednesday.

Therefore, make sure you have your umbrellas on hand tomorrow because you will more than likely need it on more than one occasion.
Our first wave of rain moved in today, providing around a quarter of an inch in some locations.

We will see the rainfall become more heavy and widespread tomorrow as a surface low pressure system and warm front lift through East Texas.
Due to the slow movement of this storm, widespread 1-2" rainfall amounts are likely, with some areas possibly receiving 3-4" where the heavier rain bands develop.

The clouds and light showers will linger through Thursday before gradual clearing takes place by the end of the week.

One of the concerns with this storm, however, is the threat for severe weather. While we just have a "slight" risk for severe thunderstorms, any storms that do move in on Wednesday afternoon will be capable of producing damaging winds and even an isolated tornado.

To stay on top of any weather developments on Wednesday, make sure you keep it tuned to KTRE-TV and ktre.com. You can also follow us through our social media networks in Facebook (facebook.com/KTREweather) and Twitter (twitter.com/KTREweather) for all your weather needs.

Drought Conditions Improve Here at Home and Statewide As Well

After heavy rains throughout the month of December and in early 2012, much of Deep East Texas have seen an improvement in the ongoing drought.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows that areas from Henderson to Carthage to Nacogdoches and down towards Livingston have seen the drought stage go from extreme to severe. This is an improvement of one category, going from a stage three to a stage two. At the same time, areas in Cherokee, Rusk, Jasper, and Newton counties have been upgraded from a stage four exceptional drought to a stage three extreme drought.

The only area that is still in the worse possible drought category (stage four, exceptional drought) is in western Houston county and western Trinity county.

This improvement in the drought has not just been confined to East Texas, but for the entire Lone Star State. Just three months ago, 73% of the state was in a stage four exceptional drought. At the present time, that percentage has been reduced to 25%. The stage three extreme drought has been reduced from 92% to 63% in the same three month time period and the stage two severe drought has been trimmed from near 100% to just under 63%.

While the improvement has been nice to see, we still have a long ways to go before we can catch up on several years worth of rainfall and erase the deficit.

In the meantime, the recent downpours have led to every county being burn ban free, ponds filling up with water, and water restrictions being lifted.

Let's hope that Mother Nature offers East Texas more beneficial rainfall in the months to come. Otherwise, the drought could worsen and more problems would rear their ugly head once again.

First Significant Rain of 2012 on the Way

After enjoying nearly seven inches of rain this past December, the rain faucets have dried up for the past couple of weeks.

However, it looks as if our first significant rain event for the new year is just day's away and it could not come at a better time considering we are still in a severe drought.

If you recall, December was wet because we had an active jet stream overhead, bringing us heavy rain from low pressure systems located to our west.

After Christmas, the weather pattern changed and shifted back to the one we saw most of last year. You remember that one, right? The one where we saw dry conditions and unseasonably warm weather. That is why temperatures, by in large, have been warmer than normal over the past week and is also why we have been dry for a couple of weeks now.

Our computer models are showing things may be looking up once again, in regards to better rain chances returning to the Piney Woods.

The Setup

The graphic image above shows what the upper level wind pattern will look like by Monday evening of next week. Notice that we are expecting a potent area of low pressure to set up shop in West Texas. Due to its position to our west, we will be able to see the moisture levels increase signficantly, aiding the development of widespread rainfall. Anytime we are east of low pressure, we have a good shot at rain as that is the favorable area for lift and precipitation.

Heavy Rainfall Amounts Possible

The rainfall for Monday and Tuesday of next week will be heavy and it looks as if we will see not one, but perhaps two days of beneficial rainfall. The biggest factor as to why we will see some good rain amounts is due to the fact that this low pressure system will slow down and be slow to move across the state. Anytime you get a slow moving system, the potential for heavy rain is there.

It's early, but the prognostications at this point indicate 1-2" of rain are likely with this next storm system next week. We anticipate the rain starting as early as Sunday night before coming to an end Tuesday evening.

Make sure you find that umbrella for early next week because you will need it.

Stay with StormTracker 9 weather. We will continue to keep you updated on our heavy rain threat for early next week. I know I'm excited to see more wet weather head our way after a break in the action.

Jet Stream Reverts Back to La Nina Pattern

After a fairly wet December in which we saw a surplus of rain, the weather pattern has shifted back into a dry pattern for East Texas as we ring in 2012.

If you recall, we had several west coast storms move into the state, providing us with rain about every three to four days throughout this past month.

That is no longer the case as the Jet Stream (fast current of winds in the upper atmosphere) has shifted to the north, changing the overall storm track. It is this configuration of the Jet Stream that led to the exceptional drought over the past year and a half.

While the dip in the jet allows strong cold fronts to head our way, it cuts off the moisture supply, which therefore, limits rainfall for East Texas.

This pattern looks to hold for the first full week of 2012, which means we will be in store for some cold, but dry weather.

Showers to Persist into the Weekend

We saw pockets of light to moderate rain showers move through the Piney Woods today, providing some East Texans with some decent rainfall totals.

The image to your left shows what our KTRE weather watchers reported in their rain gauges as of this blog entry.

On average, many communities received 0.25" to 0.50" of rain. Obviously some of you saw much less than that, but this is a general consensus on what we had.

Showers Will Linger

The good news is that the chances for light rain showers will continue overnight and through your day on Friday. The cold front that came through this evening will drop our temperatures into the 50's and probably stay there all day tomorrow, as a result of the clouds and showers in the forecast.

The pockets of rain will continue as a result of upper level disturbances moving on top of the cooler air at the surface. This is what we call an "overrunning" situation in meteorology. When we see rain occur behind a cold front, we call that "post frontal precipitation". Usually the rain we see behind a front is light in nature. That will be good for us as it will allow any rain or drizzle that occurs to soak into the dry ground soils.

We've Got You Covered

Remember that you can keep track of the rain anytime by viewing our live streaming radar at www.ktre.com/weather. You can also click on our Interactive Radar link just above the streaming radar if you wish to take over the controls and zoom down to the streets in and near your community.

Hardest Freeze This Fall Season Happens Tonight

Clear skies, dry air, and calm winds will lead to the coldest night of the fall season to date. We woke up to temperatures this morning in the upper 20's to lower 30's, but tonight will be even colder as high pressure builds into the state of Texas.

Due to the impending hard freeze tonight, a Hard Freeze Warning has been issued for Jasper, Newton, and Tyler counties through 9am Thursday morning. A Hard Freeze Warning is issued when temperatures are expected to dip to or below the 25° mark for a period longer than three hours.

Many areas along and north of the Highway 69 corridor will drop into the lower and middle 20's by tomorrow morning. The coldest spots will see sub-freezing temperatures for 8-10 hours, starting later this evening and lasting through the mid-morning hours on Thursday.

This is a reminder that you will want to take care of the 3 P's of Protection.

The first P deals with the pets. Make sure your furry friends have a warm place to stay and plenty of water to drink.

The second P deals with your plants. If you have tender plants or vegetation, make sure you cover them up, or better yet, bring them inside.

The last P deals with your pipes. While tonight's freeze may not qualify as a pipe busting type freeze, it would be a wise idea to go ahead and wrap all exposed pipes.

Keep in mind that many East Texans will be heading out of town in the next few weeks for the Christmas holiday season. By wrapping the pipes now, you will be prepared for any future hard freezes that could possibly cause them to freeze up and burst.

Major Hurricanes Spare the Texas coast, U.S. Mainland

The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season came to an end on Wednesday, ending another very active year in the tropics.

This season produced nineteen named storms, seven of which became hurricanes. Of those seven hurricanes, three were classified as major hurricanes (category 3 strength or higher). According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the 19 named storms in the Atlantic Basin tied for the(This was an image of tree damage from Hurricane Ike back on Septemer 13, 2008. Since Ike, only one hurricane has made landfall in the United States.) third highest number of storms in a given year since records began in 1851. As it turns out, the years of 1887, 1995, and 2010 also had nineteen tropical storms in one six month period.

A normal hurricane season consists of eleven named storms, six hurricanes, and two of those hurricanes being classified as cetegory 3 or higher. While the number of named storms was way above the norm, the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes was just slightly above normal.
Just like last year in 2010, this year was another gentle giant. Despite the fact the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Atlantic Ocean were quite active, very few of these storms even had an impact on the United States mainland.

Hurricane Irene was the only hurricane to make landfall in the United States this season. That hurricane was a category 2 storm and affected a large area of real estate up and down the Atlantic seaboard. Irene was the first land falling hurricane to hit the United States since Hurricane Ike hit Galveston three years ago in 2008. Of course you remember Ike. He came right up through East Texas and provided widespread wind damage.

It's hard to believe that we have had so few hurricanes hit the U.S. mainland over the past 4-5 years. I guess you can say Mother Nature has spared us, at least for now. The last major hurricane to hit the United States was Hurricane Wilma back in the record breaking season of 2005.

Getting Turkey Week Off to a Wet Start

Just like clockwork, another storm system out west will be moving into the Southern Plain states late Monday and into early Tuesday, giving Deep East Texas another good chance for beneficial rainfall.

Just like the past couple of weeks, there is a "slight" risk for severe weather. That means some of the embedded thunderstorms within the heavier downpours could contain small hail and damaging winds. At this time, the severe threat is rather low due to the timing of this system.


(Image courtesy of: Hydrometeorological Prediction Center)


The image above was taken from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC). This is the rainfall potential from Monday evening at 6pm through Tuesday evening at 6pm. Notice that the heaviest rainfall will stretch from Oklahoma to Arkansas and into southern Missouri.

The shading of blue painted on the map, represents 0.50"-1.0" of rain on average for the Pineywoods. It should be noted that some areas may receive higher rainfall amounts, but overall, it looks as if Mother Nature will send her blessings on us right before the Thanksgiving holiday.

Timing is Perfect

The timing with this storm system will work in our favor in regards to Thanksgiving travel this week. The storm will exit stage right on Tuesday afternoon, meaning Wednesday will be a nice day for all the travelers hitting the roadways.

Thanksgiving Day is also looking nice, with mostly clear skies and cooler temperatures.

But as we have seen this month, nothing stays the same for too long. Another quick moving low pressure system will bring back warmer temperatures and another chance for rain by Friday and next weekend.

More Burn Bans Lifted, But We Need More Rain

Several counties have lifted their burn bans over the past week, mainly as a result of recent weekly rainfall, and the added pressure from citizens who rely on burning their own trash.

Of our main 13 counties we serve in the KTRE viewing area, 8 of them have now lifted their burn bans, with more likely to follow suit in the days ahead.

Even though burn bans have been lifted, that is not necessarily a sign of an improvement in the drought situation.

During the month of November, we typically average 0.15" of rain per day. That means that in a week's time span, we should receive over an inch of rain just to stay on par with average rainfall for the month.

So far this month, we have had two heavy rain events that have fallen on back to back Tuesdays. While the rain is much welcome, we need even more just to put a dent in the drought. Keep in mind that many of our weather watchers have been reporting 0.40-0.75" of rain with these storm systems, with just a few areas reporting in over an inch.

If you do the math, the drought has not improved one bit. What we need is 2-3 days of steady, persistent rain per week in order to cut into the 17" deficit we now have for the year.

So while the weekly rainfall is nice, it would be even better if we had multiple days of rain, rather than just one day per week.

National Weather Service Confirms Two Tornado Touchdowns

National Weather Service meteorologists out of Shreveport surveyed the damage from Tuesday's severe thunderstorms on Wednesday and concluded that two tornadoes touched down in Deep East Texas.

The first twister touched down at 2:02pm, five miles southwest of Mount Enterprise in northern Nacogdoches county. It moved northeast and caused tree damage along FM 950 and FM 3272 before lifting just west of Highway 259. According to the National Weather Service, the tornado lifted just west of Highway 259 before touching down a second time along FM 3198 near FM 3191. As the tornado continued its second track, it ended up causing widespread tree damage near Highway 84 and FM 3191 before lifting at around 2:26pm.


This first tornado was rated an EF1, with estimated wind speeds of 90 mph. It had a maximum width of 150 yards and had a path length of 12 miles.


(Brad Hlozek cuts in to programming to keep viewers informed on tornado warnings on Tuesday afternoon.)

About an hour later, another tornado touched down in the same general vicinity as the first one. This time, it occurred at 3:34pm, three miles west of Mount Enterprise, just north of Highway 84. This tornado uprooted trees along its journey, before dissipating at 3:43pm just west of the intersection of FM 95 and Highway 315.

Unlike the first twister, this second one was weaker and rated an EF0, with estimated winds of 80 mph. It had a maximum width of 70 yards and a path length of 6 miles.

The best news to report out of these two tornado touchdowns on Tuesday was that there were no injuries or fatalities, as they stayed over mainly rural areas.

Heavy Rain, Strong Storms Likely Tomorrow

Another storm system and cold front is headed for East Texas tomorrow night. However, unlike the past few fronts, this cold front and storm system will be more potent, meaning the threat for heavy rain and severe weather will be possible.



While we may not see much rain for the first half of your Tuesday, that will change by the late afternoon and early evening hours as a trough of low pressure moves through the Pineywoods.

As you can see by our in house Microcast computer model, a squall line (fancy term for strong line of storms) is expected to rumble through Deep East Texas by the late afternoon or early evening hours. It is along this line of storms where there will be a threat for damaging winds ( > 50 mph), small hail, and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning strikes.


It has been quite a while since we had a threat for severe weather. Therefore, make sure to heed warnings if your county gets placed under one tomorrow.


Now to the Bright Side

It should be noted that the severe weather threat is low; what is more likely and beneficial for us all, is the rainfall potential.

Our Microcast computer model shows rainfall will vary from place to place; however, average rainfall amounts will range from 0.25" to as much as an inch in spots.

The return of moisture to the area will aid in rainfall potential with this particular storm system, as it helps increase the instability across the region.

Our rain chances will taper off quickly from west to east Tuesday night as the cold front pushes through Deep East Texas. The front will clear out the skies and usher in some cooler weather for the remainder of the week.

Solar Activity Means More Northern Lights

The sun is displaying more sunspots and will be very active over the next few weeks. This is due to the CME (coronal mass ejection) that takes place along the surface of the sun.

(Photo courtesy of NASA from Sep. 2011)

Due to these solar flares, Northern Lights will be visible across the night sky over the next couple of weeks.

According to Space Weather, the sunspot, named AR1339, is not yet directly facing Earth but it will be turning toward our planet in the days ahead.

The sunspot group has already caused a large CME, but it was not directed at Earth. As the sunspots travel across the sun's face in the next few weeks, the coronal mass ejections could be directed at Earth causing aurora displays.

If your wandering eyes happen to catch these Northern Lights, feel free to snap a picture and submit it to sendit@ktre.com. That will upload the picture to our "See It, Snap It, Send It" photo gallery at ktre.com.

NPP Satellite Launches Successfully

This past Friday, America's newest polar-orbiting satellite launched into space successfully. The National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) is a joint project between NASA and NOAA to better help make better forecasts.

The NPOESS Prepatory Project (NPP) satellite includes five brand new instruments that will help collect more information on weather data around the world. This includes both surface observations on land and over the oceans.

According to NOAA, NPP will be able to orbit earth every 102 minutes, flying 512 miles above the surface of the earth.

This newly advanced satellite will be able to help diagnose the atmosphere with more detailed information, which will help meteorologists be able to forecast big weather events (severe weather outbreaks, winter storms) with better accuracy and with more advanced notice.

It will be a few more months, however, until the NPP satellite will have data available to view. According to NOAA, it will be 90 days until the satellite begins its operation and replaces the NOAA-19 satellite.

For more information on the NPP satellite, you can go to http://www.noaa.gov/.

The Seesaw Ride Continues

Our fall weather continues to operate like a seesaw, with wild swings in temperatures from day to day and from week to week.

After a seasonably cool week last week, it has been anything but that over the past several days. A southeast wind and a ridge of high pressure has made for unseasonably warm weather over the past few days, with highs climbing back into the middle and upper 80's.

While the seesaw has been tilted upwards, it will be going down rather quickly, starting tomorrow.

Another strong Canadian cold front will be diving south through the Southern Plains on Thursday and will provide us with some pockets of rain followed by a drop in the temperatures.

While the rain chances tomorrow will be rather high, the rainfall totals won't be all that impressive. The image to your right is from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. It shows the 2 day rain total between now and Friday evening. Notice the swath of heavier rain will be confined from Oklahoma to Arkansas and then further up the Mississippi River Valley, towards Kentucky and Ohio.

Our guidance suggests a tenth to a quarter of an inch as an average rain total for the Pineywoods of Deep East Texas, with isolated areas receiving slightly higher amounts.

Temperatures on your Thursday will be warmest in the mid-to-late morning hours, before falling throughout the course of the day.

Make sure you take your umbrella and light jacket with you as you head off to work or school in the morning. Even though you may not need it to start the day, you will probably need both by the afternoon.