The Weather Blog

Texas Forest Service to Provide Tax Workshop

2012-02-06T20:13:00.003-06:00

The Texas Forest Service will be providing a timber tax workshop for landowners looking to recover from drought and wildfire losses from 2011.

This workshop will be held at the Lonnie and Arthur Temple Civic Center in Diboll on Friday, February 17th from 8am-5pm.

During this workshop, landowners will be given tax advice on how to best cope with federal laws geared towards the loss of timber.

If you have any questions or would like to register for this event, you can contact Monica Jadlowski at 979-458-6630.

National Weather Service Confirms Tornado Touchdown in Mt. Enterprise

2012-01-27T20:12:00.002-06:00

In the wake of Wednesday's severe storms, the National Weather Service out of Shreveport has confirmed that the damage in and around Mount Enterprise was that of an EF1 tornado, with estimated winds between 86 and 110 mph.

(Note: This is the image captured on StormTracker Live Doppler Network minutes before the line of storms produced a tornado around Mount Enterprise this past Wednesday.)

According to the National Weather Service, an EF1 tornado touched down just to the southwest of Mount Enterprise in southern Rusk county at 10:32am. The tornado moved through town and stayed on the ground for one and a half miles and had a path width of 175 yards.

Some of the damage consisted of a large tree falling on a house, while another residence had a carport torn off, injuring one person.

The National Weather Service also found that numerous trees were snapped and uprooted throughout the town. There was also a small retail building that had their roof torn off and throw across State Highway 259.

Heavy Rain and Strong Storms Likely Tomorrow

2012-01-24T22:47:00.003-06:00

A strong area of low pressure will be moving into West Texas later tonight, setting the stage for some widespread, heavy rainfall to move back into the Piney Woods on Wednesday.

Therefore, make sure you have your umbrellas on hand tomorrow because you will more than likely need it on more than one occasion.
Our first wave of rain moved in today, providing around a quarter of an inch in some locations.

We will see the rainfall become more heavy and widespread tomorrow as a surface low pressure system and warm front lift through East Texas.
Due to the slow movement of this storm, widespread 1-2" rainfall amounts are likely, with some areas possibly receiving 3-4" where the heavier rain bands develop.

The clouds and light showers will linger through Thursday before gradual clearing takes place by the end of the week.

One of the concerns with this storm, however, is the threat for severe weather. While we just have a "slight" risk for severe thunderstorms, any storms that do move in on Wednesday afternoon will be capable of producing damaging winds and even an isolated tornado.

To stay on top of any weather developments on Wednesday, make sure you keep it tuned to KTRE-TV and ktre.com. You can also follow us through our social media networks in Facebook (facebook.com/KTREweather) and Twitter (twitter.com/KTREweather) for all your weather needs.

Drought Conditions Improve Here at Home and Statewide As Well

2012-01-14T09:34:00.000-06:00

After heavy rains throughout the month of December and in early 2012, much of Deep East Texas have seen an improvement in the ongoing drought.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows that areas from Henderson to Carthage to Nacogdoches and down towards Livingston have seen the drought stage go from extreme to severe. This is an improvement of one category, going from a stage three to a stage two. At the same time, areas in Cherokee, Rusk, Jasper, and Newton counties have been upgraded from a stage four exceptional drought to a stage three extreme drought.

The only area that is still in the worse possible drought category (stage four, exceptional drought) is in western Houston county and western Trinity county.

This improvement in the drought has not just been confined to East Texas, but for the entire Lone Star State. Just three months ago, 73% of the state was in a stage four exceptional drought. At the present time, that percentage has been reduced to 25%. The stage three extreme drought has been reduced from 92% to 63% in the same three month time period and the stage two severe drought has been trimmed from near 100% to just under 63%.

While the improvement has been nice to see, we still have a long ways to go before we can catch up on several years worth of rainfall and erase the deficit.

In the meantime, the recent downpours have led to every county being burn ban free, ponds filling up with water, and water restrictions being lifted.

Let's hope that Mother Nature offers East Texas more beneficial rainfall in the months to come. Otherwise, the drought could worsen and more problems would rear their ugly head once again.

First Significant Rain of 2012 on the Way

2012-01-05T20:09:00.004-06:00

After enjoying nearly seven inches of rain this past December, the rain faucets have dried up for the past couple of weeks.

However, it looks as if our first significant rain event for the new year is just day's away and it could not come at a better time considering we are still in a severe drought.

If you recall, December was wet because we had an active jet stream overhead, bringing us heavy rain from low pressure systems located to our west.

After Christmas, the weather pattern changed and shifted back to the one we saw most of last year. You remember that one, right? The one where we saw dry conditions and unseasonably warm weather. That is why temperatures, by in large, have been warmer than normal over the past week and is also why we have been dry for a couple of weeks now.

Our computer models are showing things may be looking up once again, in regards to better rain chances returning to the Piney Woods.

The Setup

The graphic image above shows what the upper level wind pattern will look like by Monday evening of next week. Notice that we are expecting a potent area of low pressure to set up shop in West Texas. Due to its position to our west, we will be able to see the moisture levels increase signficantly, aiding the development of widespread rainfall. Anytime we are east of low pressure, we have a good shot at rain as that is the favorable area for lift and precipitation.

Heavy Rainfall Amounts Possible

The rainfall for Monday and Tuesday of next week will be heavy and it looks as if we will see not one, but perhaps two days of beneficial rainfall. The biggest factor as to why we will see some good rain amounts is due to the fact that this low pressure system will slow down and be slow to move across the state. Anytime you get a slow moving system, the potential for heavy rain is there.

It's early, but the prognostications at this point indicate 1-2" of rain are likely with this next storm system next week. We anticipate the rain starting as early as Sunday night before coming to an end Tuesday evening.

Make sure you find that umbrella for early next week because you will need it.

Stay with StormTracker 9 weather. We will continue to keep you updated on our heavy rain threat for early next week. I know I'm excited to see more wet weather head our way after a break in the action.

Jet Stream Reverts Back to La Nina Pattern

2011-12-30T22:47:00.003-06:00

After a fairly wet December in which we saw a surplus of rain, the weather pattern has shifted back into a dry pattern for East Texas as we ring in 2012.

If you recall, we had several west coast storms move into the state, providing us with rain about every three to four days throughout this past month.

That is no longer the case as the Jet Stream (fast current of winds in the upper atmosphere) has shifted to the north, changing the overall storm track. It is this configuration of the Jet Stream that led to the exceptional drought over the past year and a half.

While the dip in the jet allows strong cold fronts to head our way, it cuts off the moisture supply, which therefore, limits rainfall for East Texas.

This pattern looks to hold for the first full week of 2012, which means we will be in store for some cold, but dry weather.

Showers to Persist into the Weekend

2011-12-15T20:12:00.003-06:00

We saw pockets of light to moderate rain showers move through the Piney Woods today, providing some East Texans with some decent rainfall totals.

The image to your left shows what our KTRE weather watchers reported in their rain gauges as of this blog entry.

On average, many communities received 0.25" to 0.50" of rain. Obviously some of you saw much less than that, but this is a general consensus on what we had.

Showers Will Linger

The good news is that the chances for light rain showers will continue overnight and through your day on Friday. The cold front that came through this evening will drop our temperatures into the 50's and probably stay there all day tomorrow, as a result of the clouds and showers in the forecast.

The pockets of rain will continue as a result of upper level disturbances moving on top of the cooler air at the surface. This is what we call an "overrunning" situation in meteorology. When we see rain occur behind a cold front, we call that "post frontal precipitation". Usually the rain we see behind a front is light in nature. That will be good for us as it will allow any rain or drizzle that occurs to soak into the dry ground soils.

We've Got You Covered

Remember that you can keep track of the rain anytime by viewing our live streaming radar at www.ktre.com/weather. You can also click on our Interactive Radar link just above the streaming radar if you wish to take over the controls and zoom down to the streets in and near your community.

Hardest Freeze This Fall Season Happens Tonight

2011-12-07T20:04:00.001-06:00

Clear skies, dry air, and calm winds will lead to the coldest night of the fall season to date. We woke up to temperatures this morning in the upper 20's to lower 30's, but tonight will be even colder as high pressure builds into the state of Texas.

Due to the impending hard freeze tonight, a Hard Freeze Warning has been issued for Jasper, Newton, and Tyler counties through 9am Thursday morning. A Hard Freeze Warning is issued when temperatures are expected to dip to or below the 25° mark for a period longer than three hours.

Many areas along and north of the Highway 69 corridor will drop into the lower and middle 20's by tomorrow morning. The coldest spots will see sub-freezing temperatures for 8-10 hours, starting later this evening and lasting through the mid-morning hours on Thursday.

This is a reminder that you will want to take care of the 3 P's of Protection.

The first P deals with the pets. Make sure your furry friends have a warm place to stay and plenty of water to drink.

The second P deals with your plants. If you have tender plants or vegetation, make sure you cover them up, or better yet, bring them inside.

The last P deals with your pipes. While tonight's freeze may not qualify as a pipe busting type freeze, it would be a wise idea to go ahead and wrap all exposed pipes.

Keep in mind that many East Texans will be heading out of town in the next few weeks for the Christmas holiday season. By wrapping the pipes now, you will be prepared for any future hard freezes that could possibly cause them to freeze up and burst.

Major Hurricanes Spare the Texas coast, U.S. Mainland

2011-12-02T20:53:00.003-06:00

The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season came to an end on Wednesday, ending another very active year in the tropics.

This season produced nineteen named storms, seven of which became hurricanes. Of those seven hurricanes, three were classified as major hurricanes (category 3 strength or higher). According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the 19 named storms in the Atlantic Basin tied for the(This was an image of tree damage from Hurricane Ike back on Septemer 13, 2008. Since Ike, only one hurricane has made landfall in the United States.) third highest number of storms in a given year since records began in 1851. As it turns out, the years of 1887, 1995, and 2010 also had nineteen tropical storms in one six month period.

A normal hurricane season consists of eleven named storms, six hurricanes, and two of those hurricanes being classified as cetegory 3 or higher. While the number of named storms was way above the norm, the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes was just slightly above normal.
Just like last year in 2010, this year was another gentle giant. Despite the fact the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Atlantic Ocean were quite active, very few of these storms even had an impact on the United States mainland.

Hurricane Irene was the only hurricane to make landfall in the United States this season. That hurricane was a category 2 storm and affected a large area of real estate up and down the Atlantic seaboard. Irene was the first land falling hurricane to hit the United States since Hurricane Ike hit Galveston three years ago in 2008. Of course you remember Ike. He came right up through East Texas and provided widespread wind damage.

It's hard to believe that we have had so few hurricanes hit the U.S. mainland over the past 4-5 years. I guess you can say Mother Nature has spared us, at least for now. The last major hurricane to hit the United States was Hurricane Wilma back in the record breaking season of 2005.

Getting Turkey Week Off to a Wet Start

2011-11-20T21:43:00.003-06:00

Just like clockwork, another storm system out west will be moving into the Southern Plain states late Monday and into early Tuesday, giving Deep East Texas another good chance for beneficial rainfall.

Just like the past couple of weeks, there is a "slight" risk for severe weather. That means some of the embedded thunderstorms within the heavier downpours could contain small hail and damaging winds. At this time, the severe threat is rather low due to the timing of this system.

(Image courtesy of: Hydrometeorological Prediction Center)

The image above was taken from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC). This is the rainfall potential from Monday evening at 6pm through Tuesday evening at 6pm. Notice that the heaviest rainfall will stretch from Oklahoma to Arkansas and into southern Missouri.

The shading of blue painted on the map, represents 0.50"-1.0" of rain on average for the Pineywoods. It should be noted that some areas may receive higher rainfall amounts, but overall, it looks as if Mother Nature will send her blessings on us right before the Thanksgiving holiday.

Timing is Perfect

The timing with this storm system will work in our favor in regards to Thanksgiving travel this week. The storm will exit stage right on Tuesday afternoon, meaning Wednesday will be a nice day for all the travelers hitting the roadways.

Thanksgiving Day is also looking nice, with mostly clear skies and cooler temperatures.

But as we have seen this month, nothing stays the same for too long. Another quick moving low pressure system will bring back warmer temperatures and another chance for rain by Friday and next weekend.

More Burn Bans Lifted, But We Need More Rain

2011-11-17T20:16:00.005-06:00

Several counties have lifted their burn bans over the past week, mainly as a result of recent weekly rainfall, and the added pressure from citizens who rely on burning their own trash.

Of our main 13 counties we serve in the KTRE viewing area, 8 of them have now lifted their burn bans, with more likely to follow suit in the days ahead.

Even though burn bans have been lifted, that is not necessarily a sign of an improvement in the drought situation.

During the month of November, we typically average 0.15" of rain per day. That means that in a week's time span, we should receive over an inch of rain just to stay on par with average rainfall for the month.

So far this month, we have had two heavy rain events that have fallen on back to back Tuesdays. While the rain is much welcome, we need even more just to put a dent in the drought. Keep in mind that many of our weather watchers have been reporting 0.40-0.75" of rain with these storm systems, with just a few areas reporting in over an inch.

If you do the math, the drought has not improved one bit. What we need is 2-3 days of steady, persistent rain per week in order to cut into the 17" deficit we now have for the year.

So while the weekly rainfall is nice, it would be even better if we had multiple days of rain, rather than just one day per week.

National Weather Service Confirms Two Tornado Touchdowns

2011-11-10T20:09:00.004-06:00

National Weather Service meteorologists out of Shreveport surveyed the damage from Tuesday's severe thunderstorms on Wednesday and concluded that two tornadoes touched down in Deep East Texas.

The first twister touched down at 2:02pm, five miles southwest of Mount Enterprise in northern Nacogdoches county. It moved northeast and caused tree damage along FM 950 and FM 3272 before lifting just west of Highway 259. According to the National Weather Service, the tornado lifted just west of Highway 259 before touching down a second time along FM 3198 near FM 3191. As the tornado continued its second track, it ended up causing widespread tree damage near Highway 84 and FM 3191 before lifting at around 2:26pm.

This first tornado was rated an EF1, with estimated wind speeds of 90 mph. It had a maximum width of 150 yards and had a path length of 12 miles.

(Brad Hlozek cuts in to programming to keep viewers informed on tornado warnings on Tuesday afternoon.)

About an hour later, another tornado touched down in the same general vicinity as the first one. This time, it occurred at 3:34pm, three miles west of Mount Enterprise, just north of Highway 84. This tornado uprooted trees along its journey, before dissipating at 3:43pm just west of the intersection of FM 95 and Highway 315.

Unlike the first twister, this second one was weaker and rated an EF0, with estimated winds of 80 mph. It had a maximum width of 70 yards and a path length of 6 miles.

The best news to report out of these two tornado touchdowns on Tuesday was that there were no injuries or fatalities, as they stayed over mainly rural areas.

Heavy Rain, Strong Storms Likely Tomorrow

2011-11-07T19:54:00.004-06:00

Another storm system and cold front is headed for East Texas tomorrow night. However, unlike the past few fronts, this cold front and storm system will be more potent, meaning the threat for heavy rain and severe weather will be possible.

While we may not see much rain for the first half of your Tuesday, that will change by the late afternoon and early evening hours as a trough of low pressure moves through the Pineywoods.

As you can see by our in house Microcast computer model, a squall line (fancy term for strong line of storms) is expected to rumble through Deep East Texas by the late afternoon or early evening hours. It is along this line of storms where there will be a threat for damaging winds ( > 50 mph), small hail, and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning strikes.

It has been quite a while since we had a threat for severe weather. Therefore, make sure to heed warnings if your county gets placed under one tomorrow.

Now to the Bright Side

It should be noted that the severe weather threat is low; what is more likely and beneficial for us all, is the rainfall potential.

Our Microcast computer model shows rainfall will vary from place to place; however, average rainfall amounts will range from 0.25" to as much as an inch in spots.

The return of moisture to the area will aid in rainfall potential with this particular storm system, as it helps increase the instability across the region.

Our rain chances will taper off quickly from west to east Tuesday night as the cold front pushes through Deep East Texas. The front will clear out the skies and usher in some cooler weather for the remainder of the week.

Solar Activity Means More Northern Lights

2011-11-04T16:41:00.003-05:00

The sun is displaying more sunspots and will be very active over the next few weeks. This is due to the CME (coronal mass ejection) that takes place along the surface of the sun.

(Photo courtesy of NASA from Sep. 2011)

Due to these solar flares, Northern Lights will be visible across the night sky over the next couple of weeks.

According to Space Weather, the sunspot, named AR1339, is not yet directly facing Earth but it will be turning toward our planet in the days ahead.

The sunspot group has already caused a large CME, but it was not directed at Earth. As the sunspots travel across the sun's face in the next few weeks, the coronal mass ejections could be directed at Earth causing aurora displays.

If your wandering eyes happen to catch these Northern Lights, feel free to snap a picture and submit it to sendit@ktre.com. That will upload the picture to our "See It, Snap It, Send It" photo gallery at ktre.com.

NPP Satellite Launches Successfully

2011-10-28T20:26:00.005-05:00

This past Friday, America's newest polar-orbiting satellite launched into space successfully. The National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) is a joint project between NASA and NOAA to better help make better forecasts.

The NPOESS Prepatory Project (NPP) satellite includes five brand new instruments that will help collect more information on weather data around the world. This includes both surface observations on land and over the oceans.

According to NOAA, NPP will be able to orbit earth every 102 minutes, flying 512 miles above the surface of the earth.

This newly advanced satellite will be able to help diagnose the atmosphere with more detailed information, which will help meteorologists be able to forecast big weather events (severe weather outbreaks, winter storms) with better accuracy and with more advanced notice.

It will be a few more months, however, until the NPP satellite will have data available to view. According to NOAA, it will be 90 days until the satellite begins its operation and replaces the NOAA-19 satellite.

For more information on the NPP satellite, you can go to http://www.noaa.gov/.

The Seesaw Ride Continues

2011-10-26T20:42:00.005-05:00

Our fall weather continues to operate like a seesaw, with wild swings in temperatures from day to day and from week to week.

After a seasonably cool week last week, it has been anything but that over the past several days. A southeast wind and a ridge of high pressure has made for unseasonably warm weather over the past few days, with highs climbing back into the middle and upper 80's.

While the seesaw has been tilted upwards, it will be going down rather quickly, starting tomorrow.

Another strong Canadian cold front will be diving south through the Southern Plains on Thursday and will provide us with some pockets of rain followed by a drop in the temperatures.

While the rain chances tomorrow will be rather high, the rainfall totals won't be all that impressive. The image to your right is from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. It shows the 2 day rain total between now and Friday evening. Notice the swath of heavier rain will be confined from Oklahoma to Arkansas and then further up the Mississippi River Valley, towards Kentucky and Ohio.

Our guidance suggests a tenth to a quarter of an inch as an average rain total for the Pineywoods of Deep East Texas, with isolated areas receiving slightly higher amounts.

Temperatures on your Thursday will be warmest in the mid-to-late morning hours, before falling throughout the course of the day.

Make sure you take your umbrella and light jacket with you as you head off to work or school in the morning. Even though you may not need it to start the day, you will probably need both by the afternoon.

Rainfall Totals From Early This Morning

2011-10-18T20:25:00.004-05:00

Before the cold front blew through East Texas, we did see some areas and communities pick up some beneficial rainfall in the wee hours of the morning.

The image to your left shows the rainfall totals that were reported in by our weather watchers in Deep East Texas.

The heaviest rain fell over areas along and north of the Highway 69 corridor. Most areas in Nacogdoches, Rusk, Sabine, San Augustine, and Shelby counties received anywhere from one half inch to well over one inch of rain.

These rainfall totals match up well with our Doppler Radar estimates. The shading of green represents one half to one inch of rainfall, with the blue showing 0.10" to 0.25". You can clearly see a defined cutoff point from the areas that received the rain vs. the areas that barely got a trace.

The strong northerly winds we saw today dried out the ground soils very quickly, limiting the usefulness of the rain we saw around daybreak.

A Dip in the Jet Means More Surges of Cool Air

2011-10-13T20:49:00.005-05:00

A cold front moved through Deep East Texas earlier today, clearing out the skies and ushering in some cooler temperatures.

This cold front will act more like a "cool" front, as the airmass behind the front is not all that cold. Our overnight lows the next few nights will be below normal, as we fall into the upper 40's and lower 50's, while our highs will be above normal, as we warm up into the middle to upper 80's.

While the weather will be less humid and quite refreshing in the days ahead, we are going to see a much stronger fall cold front sweep through the Pineywoods next week.

Next week's cold front will literally be a ":cold" front, as a dip in the Jet stream and a deeper trough pulls down some Canadian air into the heart of mid-America.

Parts of the upper midwest and northern Plain states could dip below freezing. We won't be quite as cold, as much of the chill will modify as it moves further south. Nonetheless, it looks as if you might be able to break out the boots, jeans, and sweaters next week as we really get our first significant fall cold front.

A Soaker for the Lone Star State

2011-10-10T19:55:00.004-05:00

Very heavy and beneficial rains fell across the extreme to exceptional drought grounds of Texas this weekend. The rain that fell started on Saturday morning and lasted all the way through Sunday night before finally tapering off.

The affects of the rain were felt state-wide as a weak Pacific front combined with a strong upper air disturbance to generate widespread showers and storms.

Waco had the highest 48 hour rainfall total, reporting 5.83". San Antonio received 3.12", Houston got 3.02", followed by Abilene with 2.97".

East Texas Misses Out

As you look at those totals, you are probably becoming depressed as many of you did not receive even a tenth of an inch of rain.

As we talked about on Friday, most of the heavy rain was going to stay to our north and west. As it turned out, the forecast verified with only parts of Houston, Trinity, and Polk counties getting in on some rain on Sunday.

Rain chances will be dwindling as drier air moves into the Pineywoods on Tuesday. There will be a brief window for an isolated shower or storm late Wednesday night, as a cold front swings through the Texas Forest Country.

Once that window passes, we will be in store for some beautiful weather, as cooler and drier air filters into the region. However, with our drought situation, sometimes beautiful is an adjective that can sum up rain; unfortunately, we don't see much of that wet stuff in the offing over the next five to seven days.

La Nina Could Last Another Year

2011-10-05T20:11:00.003-05:00

The weather phenomena known as "La Nina" is likely to persist for another year, which means our exceptional drought status could remain the same for a second year.

My college professor at Texas A&M University, Dr. Nielsen-Gammon, spoke Monday at a climate workshop in Fort Worth. He is our state climatologist and has been reiterating the fact that no significant rain relief looks to be in the offing at this point as La Nina is expected to strengthen and last for at least another year.

If there is any good news, it's that Nielsen-Gammon says there is only a 25% chance that Texas' drought will persist for another five years.

La Nina is a weather phenomena associated with cooler than normal sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, as seen by the image to your left. It is these abnormally cooler water temperatures that alter the weather patterns across the globe and can influence a region's temperature and precipitation outlook.

Unfortunately for us in East Texas and all Texans across the state, it means warmer and drier than normal conditions throughout the entire year. It just so happens that this particular phase of La Nina is stronger than normal, which has led to the worst drought in over 50 years.

What Lies Ahead

With a persisting La Nina, we would see a dry fall and winter, which would only worsen the ongoing drought. We would also see a few cold blasts, but the overall trend would be warmer than normal conditions when averaged out for a two or three month period.

With very little rainfall and strong winds blowing in behind cold fronts, the fire threat will also be increased. The combination of dry fuels, low relative humidity values, and gusty winds means the wildfire season could get worse.

Going into next spring, we could see a few severe weather outbreaks that are more violent than normal. If you recall, we had a very active spring earlier this year with several tornado reports. We had two consecutive nights of active tornado warnings this past April. This was part of the storm system that ended up producing the violent tornadoes across Dixie Alley in the days that followed.

History has shown that La Nina years have more severe weather episodes and that's not good as it means any chances for wet weather in the spring will come at a steep price.

Drought Could Persist Through The Winter

2011-09-22T20:50:00.004-05:00

The weather phenomena known as "La Nina" has been responsible for our worst drought in Texas history as well as the hottest summer on record.

La Nina is associated with cooler than normal waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean that alter the weather patterns around the world.

The image shows the cooler than normal sea surface temperatures by the shading of blue.

These below average water temperatures bare bad news for Texas, as it means warmer and drier conditions than normal.

What made the 2010-2011 La Nina worse was the fact we had a "strong" La Nina. That meant that not only were we in a drought, but we had an "exceptional" drought. That ended up leading to 63 days of 100° temperatures as the dry and parched soils lead to unsusually hot weather.

What happens during a La Nina phase is the Jet stream configures itself in a way that keeps Gulf of Mexico and Pacific moisture out of the state. Therefore, when fronts blow through East Texas, we see very little rain and low humidity.

Prognostications Not Good

According to NOAA and Texas state climatologist Dr. Nielsen Gammon, La Nina is expected to continue through the fall season and very well could last through the winter months as well.

The big question is whether or not La Nina will weaken to a moderate or slight phase or remain the same. Regardless of the phase, this news does not bode well for East Texans or anyone else in the state for that matter.

The impacts could be even more devastating if we continue to see below normal rainfall and very little moisture over the next 3 to 6 months.

You can click here to read the full article on what our state climatologist, Dr. John Nielsen Gammon has to say about the climate outlook as we move forward this year.

Receiving Some Precious Liquid Gold

2011-09-19T20:44:00.004-05:00

An upper level trough combined with a weak cold front to generate some much needed rain for all Deep East Texas over the past couple of days.

The rain came in several waves. One wave came on Saturday evening, where parts of the area received some moderate rain showers.

The second wave came Sunday morning, where scattered showers and isolated storms woke many of you up and provided some nice rainfall to start your day.

Then came the last and final round that occurred overnight Sunday and into early Monday morning. This last batch of rain was the heaviest and also came in the form of some strong thunderstorms as the actual cold front sweeped through the area.

When you add it all up, there were several areas that picked up over an inch of rain, with most areas receiving at least a half inch and some spots getting over 2 inches.

Here is a graphic that shows all the rainfall totals over the weekend, as reported by our loyal weather watchers. Feel free to click on the image to see it in better detail.

This one and a half day rainfall event was the most we had seen since June 21st and June 22nd, when 1-2" of rain were quite common across the Piney Woods.

It should be noted that we still have a rain deficit for the month and an 11.59" deficit for the year. Please refrain from doing any outdoor burning and note that the fire threat is still high, despite the fact we received some much needed rain.

Unfortunately, rain chances are dwindling quickly and the forecast looks fairly dry for the next five to seven days.

A Cold Front Means Relief For East Texans

2011-09-14T20:52:00.007-05:00

After enduring 4 consecutive days of record breaking heat and several wildfires flaring up each afternoon, it seems that Mother Nature will finally give in and provide East Texans with a much deserved break.

Our relief will be in the form of a cold front that is currently moving through East Texas as we speak.

While we won't necessarily receive a ton of rain, there will still be isolated showers that develop over the Pineywoods over the next couple of days. We will also see some added cloud cover, that when combined with the cooler air moving in, will keep temperatures in the middle to upper 80's.

Our wind forecast shows where the front will be positioned on Friday morning. Notice the wind direction is from the east and northeast. That northeasterly component is what will bring in the cooler temperatures and push all the warm air further south.

Even though we will see a drop in the temperatures here in Deep East Texas, it won't be as sharp of a drop as what they are expecting in the Panhandle of Texas and in Oklahoma.

The map to your right shows the forecasted highs for later today. Notice that Amarillo is only looking for a high of 58° and Oklahoma City will only make 62°. It will still remain hot for South Central Texas due to the fact that the front will not make it to their area until later tonight.

Record Setting Summer Still Going

2011-09-12T20:42:00.007-05:00

After a week of cooler temperatures, the heat has returned to Deep East Texas as a ridge of high pressure builds in overhead.

We have now hit the century mark a record 60 times so far this summer, and will continue to add to that total yet again today and possibly on Wednesday as well.

An exceptional drought means the extreme heat will continue due to the dry fuels in place across the entire Texas Forest Country.

Fire Threat Still High

The ongoing threat for wildfires will only be increasing over the next couple of days as the wind speeds pick up out of the west-southwest at 10 to 15 mph. These breezy conditions will only dry things out even more, causing the relative humidity to be in the 10-15% range. That is not a combination you want to see when we have already seen several wildfires flare up over the past several days.

Our Futurecast computer model shows the wind forecast at Wednesday evening at 7pm. Notice the wind arrows are blowing from south to north. The winds will have a westerly component as well, which is a dry wind that heats up the atmosphere very rapidly.

Don't let your eyes fool you...that blue triangle feature you see on the map is a cold front that will push into East Texas late this week. This front will bring back slight rain chances to the forecast and will drop temperatures back down into the lower 90's.

Nate Will Neglect Texas, Just Like Don and Lee Did

2011-09-09T20:46:00.005-05:00

For the third time in this 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, we have a tropical storm which has formed in the Gulf of Mexico. Unfortuantely, Tropical Storm Nate will not provide East Texas with any substantial rain to help the ongoing wildfires and drought status for the Pineywoods.

The image to your right shows that Nate will be headed due west and into Mexico sometime on Sunday afternoon.

Because Nate will be so far south of Texas, we will not see any rain make it up in this direction. As a result, look for more dry conditions with the fire threat still remaining high, even though wind speeds won't be as strong this weekend.

A ridge of high pressure, currently situated over Mexico, will be building over the state of Texas late this weekend. It is this high pressure ridge which will keep Tropical Storm Nate well south of Texas, while at the same time, allow the heat to start building once again.

We will see morning lows creep back up into the 60's this weekend, with daytime highs climbing back up into the middle 90's. Don't look now, but next week will be even hotter, as upper 90's return to Deep East Texas.

Tracking the Fires on Satellite

2011-09-06T20:39:00.004-05:00

One of the benefits of satellite and radar is not only can they detect clouds and rain, but they can also pick up on other objects in the atmosphere.

Our high resolution satellite was able to show some of the ongoing wildfires across East Texas this afternoon. You can clearly see the whispy white colors fanning off to the south. That is the smoke plumes fanning off from the source of where the actual wildfires were burning earlier today.

I have labeled the wildfire locations with a red dot as seen on the image above.

While the winds will subside tonight, look for them to pick back up a bit again on Wednesday. The wind speeds will be on the order of 10 to 15 mph the next couple of days, especially in the afternoon hours. Because the wind direction will be from the north, that means the smoke plumes will be moving in a southerly direction the next few days.

Keep checking back with ktre.com to stay up-to-date with all the fire developments in Deep East Texas. There is also a very useful link tied into the Texas Forest Service, which shows the ongoing fires across the state. You can view that link by clicking here.

Rain Chances Still There For Today and Sunday

2011-09-03T10:03:00.001-05:00

While we have not seen any rain in Deep East Texas up to this point, we still have a chance for receiving some of that wet stuff later today and then again on Sunday as Tropical Storm Lee moves onshore along the Louisiana coast.

The latest satellite image shows mid and high level clouds drifting into East Texas this morning. Our StormTracker Live Doppler Network is showing a batch of light rain now moving westward and spreading into Jasper, Newton, and Sabine counties.

As we have reiterated the past few days, areas in and near the Sabine River and Toledo Bend will have the best chance of receiving rainfall. Lufkin and Nacogdoches will have about a 2 in 5 chance (40%) of getting some rain this afternoon, while areas west of Highway 59 will have only a 20% chance of rain. As Tropical Storm Lee moves onshore Sunday morning, we will still have about the same odds of getting wet for tomorrow.

Since the state of Texas is on the backside of the system, we will not see the heavy, soaking rains that many of you wanted. It does, however, beat the weather they are seeing in southern Louisiana, where flooding and numerous tornado warnings are currently in place.

The Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale Is Exactly That, A Wind Scale

2011-08-29T19:40:00.005-05:00

Now that Hurricane Irene has come and gone, many citizens up and down the eastern seaboard are left with power outages and widespread flooding. Most of the flooding is due to river flooding, where creeks, streams, and bayous will overflow their banks, creating a dangerous situation in which neighborhoods and communties could be devastated.

As I was watching this storm mature and move up the Atlantic seaboard, I kept on thinking of the similarities between Irene and Hurricane Ike, which came through East Texas nearly three years ago.

Both of these hurricanes were only category 2 hurricanes, according the the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale, in which sustained winds were around 100-110 mph. However, both of them were unusually large hurricanes and had more widespread impacts than just the wind speed.

If you watched any of the national coverage over the weekend, you probably kept hearing meteorologists saying that the category does not do the storm justice for just how strong it is or the impacts it could create.

Unfortunately, public perception is that the category of the hurricane ultimately dictates whether or not citizens should evacuate or ride the storm out.

It should be noted that not all hurricanes are made the same and the category does not tell the whole story as to what the impacts could be.

Keep in mind that the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale is exactly that, a wind scale. The category strength of a hurricane is only dependent upon sustained wind speeds and nothing else. It does not tell you about the size of the storm, the storm surge it could create, or the inland flooding that could result from the storm movement.

If you look at the 5 categories by which we classify hurricanes, you will also notice a range of pressure levels in addition to the wind speeds. It should be noted that the central pressure with Irene was around 950 mb. That would usually indicate a strong end category 3 hurricane if you look at the chart I attached. Instead of a category 3 hurricane, Irene was a category 2, with maximum sustained winds of around 110 mph.

Why the discrepancy? The storm was very broad and had an eye that was very large in diameter. We saw the same thing with Ike three years ago in which the wind speeds did not match up with the pressure of the storm.

Let this be a reminder that the next time we talk about hurricane strength, we are only referring to one aspect of the storm, that being the wind speed. That is why Hurricane Irene, which was mainly a category 1 hurricane as she moved parallel to the east coast, did way more damage and left a significant impact than most other category 1 storms.

Why The High Wind Gusts With Today's Storms?

2011-08-24T20:12:00.003-05:00

Today's storms provided some beneficial rains to Deep East Texas, but it did come at a cost. That cost was damaging winds, which at times, were gusting over 50 mph.

These high winds occurred along a "gust front." A gust front is a boundary of rain cooled air that rushes out of a thunderstorm and then spreads out along the ground. They are often times associated with thunderstorm complexes, much like the one we saw today.

I was able to capture this radar image at 3:09pm this afternoon, when the gust front was encroaching on the Pineywoods. The gust front is the thin blue line that stretched from Center to near Mount Enterprise at this particular time.

It is that boundary which surged to the south and southwest preceding the rain that soon followed. Due to our drought situation, the high winds not only knocked down trees, but also kicked up a bunch of dirt, creating a scene you would typically see in West Texas.

Despite the fact the rain did not last as long as many of you would have liked, we did see a big drop in the temperatures once the storm complex moved through. Have you stepped outside this evening? The overcast skies and rain cooled air are something we have not seen in quite a long time.

For any updates on storm damage or to see all the pictures sent in from our loyal viewers, make sure to view our homepage at ktre.com.

Hurricane Irene Brings Both Good and Bad News

2011-08-22T20:03:00.005-05:00

Hurricane Irene continues to strengthen as she churns through the western Atlantic Ocean. She has already done damage to Puerto Rico and is currently spinning just to the north of Hispaniola.

The strength of Irene will highly depend on whether or not the center of circulation can stay away from Haiti and the Dominican Republic. If the center stays out over open waters, which most models agree on, then Irene will strengthen even further, possibly into a category 2 hurricane by tomorrow.

Irene will continue to track off to the northwest and is slated to make landfall somewhere along the eastern seaboard this weekend, possibly as a major hurricane. While the center of the track brings landfall into the Carolina's, there is still a lot of uncertainty in regards to where exactly she will end up since we are still five days away.

The average forecast error this far out (5 days)averages around 200 miles. That's why areas such as the east coast of Florida to the Virginia's are in the cone of uncertainty.

The track of Hurricane Irene will be bittersweet for us. The good news is that we won't have to deal with a hurricane. However, we could use a tropical depression or storm to help alleviate the ongoing drought.

There are a few more tropical waves well out in the Atlantic Ocean, but at this point, they don't appear to be threatening the Gulf of Mexico anytime soon.

Remember that you can stay up-to-date with the current position, forecast track, intensity forecast, and links to the National Hurricane Center by going to our Hurricane Center on ktre.com. It even shows you the latest radar and satellite images.

These Records Aren't Something To Be Proud Of

2011-08-16T20:37:00.007-05:00

As I mentioned on air the other day, breaking records and obtaining them are typically a good thing in life, except when it comes to weather. When dealing with weather records, we are talking about extremes in some shape or form.

For instance, record cold, record heat, record rainfall, record drought, etc. are the kinds of things you don't want to hear or see reported in your local weathercasts. Unfortunately, weather records don't go hand in hand with records obtained in sports or any other endeavour for that matter.

As of this evening, the Angelina County Airport in Lufkin has had 42 100° days this year. That ties the mark for the most number of 100° days that last occurred in the hot summer of 1998. We will break that record tomorrow and then shatter it as we progress through the second half of August.

On average, we see about 2 days of 100° temperatures heading into August, and about 7 days of triple digit heat per year. We have exceeded the average mark by a factor of 6 and still climbing.

More Heat Records

Not only are the number of days over the century mark a talking point, but so is our current streak of consecutive 100° days. We are at 18 days in a row, in which the temperature has hit or exceeded the century mark. That too, is an all time record for consecutive days being in triple digit territory. This treak started back on July 30th and has continued ever since.

No Relief in Sight

Outside of a stray evening shower or storm, there is no real relief to speak of. It looks as if our triple digit heat will continue right through the weekend and into next week.

Signs That Fall Is Near

2011-08-11T20:39:00.004-05:00

It seems like we are beating a dead horse, but the heat has been a big topic so far this summer, due in large part to record highs and the number of triple digit days. While it seems like there may be no end in sight, there are some positives to point out as we head through the rest of August.

It should be noted that we are just a little over a month away from the start of fall. Each day is getting a little shorter in length (sunrise occuring later, sunset earlier) and the sun angle gets a tad lower in the sky as well.

Another sign that fall is just around the corner is when we start talking about "cold fronts." Yes, I did say cold front.

We have had a cold front trigger storms the past few days in Oklahoma, Arkansas, and North Texas.

Our Futurecast computer model shows another cold front that is slated to move into East Texas over the weekend. While there is still some discrepancies on how far south the front will advance, we could see some slight rain chances return to the forecast due to its presence alone.

I should caution you that this front will not bring us any relief from the heat. However, it could increase the clouds and give way to a few showers and storms to help out a few of us by the time we head towards Sunday and Monday of next week.

The Heat Keeps Coming and Coming

2011-08-08T19:36:00.003-05:00

The unrelenting August heat continues to hold its grip over Deep East Texas, due in large part to a big dome of hot, high pressure, centered right over the Southern Plain states.

This high pressure ridge started to expand and strengthen in June and has been stuck in neutral for most of the summer months. As a result, we have seen day after day of record heat and scorching temperatures across the Lone Star State.

A July Fry to Forget

This past July was the second warmest July on record at the Angelina County Airport, just south of Lufkin. The average temperature for that month was 86.9°, which was 4.3° above normal. The warmest average July on record took place in 1998, where the average temperature was 87.7°.

July was also historic in the number of 100° days we saw as well. The 16 occurrences was second all time, only to the July of 1998, where we saw the thermometer climb at or above the century mark 22 times that year. To put the frequency of triple digit days in perspective, we typically average about 3 triple digit days for the entire month of July.

Triple Digit Days Adding Up

As of today, we have now hit or exceeded the century mark 34 times in 2011. The highest frequency of 100° days in a single year was 42, which occurred in the hot summer of 1998. At the pace we are on right now, we will more than likely break that record.

The Drought a Major Player

The overriding factor for our sizzling summer temperatures has been the ongoing extreme to exceptional drought across the Texas Forest Country. With the soils being parched and extremely dry, there is no moisture to evaporate into the atmosphere. Therefore, it makes it a whole lot easier for the environment to heat up, especially when we get into the months of July and August.

Not as Oppressive, But Not Much Relief

As we head through the week, daytime highs are still expected to reach triple digit territory with relative ease. However, the dome of high pressure will not be as strong as last week and will be shifted slightly furthur to the west. This means that we will take an edge off the extreme heat and will see slight rain chances re-enter the picture.

Summer Heat Elevated to Dangerous Levels

2011-08-01T20:56:00.004-05:00

We are entering the month of August with the hottest weather we have seen so far this year. While feeling the triple digit heat is not all that uncommon in August, what is unusual is how high the mercury will be climbing each afternoon this week.

On Monday, we reached 106° at the Angelina County Airport, just south of Lufkin. That reading was the hottest day we have seen to date so far in 2011. Unfortunately, it could get worse in the days ahead, as a big dome of high pressure strengthens and situates itself over the Southern Plain states.

This is the type of weather pattern which often gives us a stretch of triple digit temperatures this time of year. However, just as we've seen through the spring and summer months so far, this summer is not your typical summer. It has been unseasonably hot, due in large part to the exceptional drought, which continues to plague most of the state.

With that dry ground in place, it makes it easier for the temperatures to heat up, especially now that we are in the month of August.

With our hottest stretch of weather setting in this week, the National Weather Service has put several of our East Texas counties under an "Excessive Heat Warning." This is a step up from the regular heat advisory that we typically see issued this time of year.

What this advisory means is that heat stroke and/or heat exhaustion can set in very quickly, especially if you find yourself outdoors for an extended period of time.

While advice on how to keep cool is common sense, there is one thing I want to point out that I feel is vitally important to those of you that don't have air conditioning: Please seek that A/C if you don't have any. This might mean calling a friend or neighbor, and having them take you in at their place of residence. Another option would be to go to a mall, movie theater, grocery store, or restaurant that has air conditioning. Try to take advantage of these public facilities that have air conditioning.

It is during these types of heat waves we often hear about heat related deaths and illnesses. Please don't let yourself or a close friend be a victim. Let's take care of ourselves and each other and make sure we are doing what is necessary to stay cool during this heat wave.

High Pressure Ridge Main Factor For Where Don Will Go

2011-07-27T21:30:00.003-05:00

Tropical Storm Don will continue his west-northwestward jog through the Gulf of Mexico over the next 36 to 48 hours. While there is a high certainty he will make landfall along the Texas coast, the answers aren't as clear as to where along the coast that will be.
The steering currents, or the wind direction, is the overriding factor as to where tropical systems will end up going. Just like wind aiding along a sailboat, the winds in the mid levels of the atmosphere will ultimately decide where Don will go in the days ahead.

The main steering current will be our large dome of hot, high pressure. It is expected to strengthen and move towards the Southeast United States. With that clockwise flow around the ridge, Don will continue his northwestward trek through the Gulf.

The tricky part comes in how strong will the ridge become and where exactly will it be positioned. If it is slightly weaker or farther away than models indicate, then Don could take a northward jog, meaning the upper Texas coast is in line to see a direct landfall Friday evening. However, if the high pressure ridge is as strong as the models make it out to be, then Don will probably end up making landfall somewhere around Corpus Christi or far South Texas.

Our rain chances on Friday will be soley dependent upon Don's position. Because he is not a broad system, the rain bands will be confined to areas in and near the low pressure center. So while we typically don't welcome tropical storms to the state, this time around is different. After all, we've been saying all along that a tropical system is what we need to help alleviate the ongoing extreme drought.

Tropical Wave Set To Move Into The Gulf

2011-07-26T20:15:00.004-05:00

An area of disturbed weather, which has been affecting portions of Cuba the past few days, has now emerged in the western Caribbean Sea, and is now setting its sights on the Gulf of Mexico.

This tropical wave has shown signs of getting better organized, and now has a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Anytime there is a tropical wave that enters the Gulf of Mexico, we must watch it very closely, even if models don't think it will strengthen in the short term.

At this time, hurricane hunters are expected to fly into this system tomorrow to see if it has a closed circulation of low pressure at the surface. If they find this on their flight out to sea, it will be given the name "Don," which is the next name on our Atlantic hurricane list for this year.

The image to your right shows the various computer models we have access to in the StormTracker Weather Center. Notice how they all take this wave into the western Gulf over the next few days. Regardless if this system develops, it looks as if this area of low pressure will track anywhere towards the lower to middle Texas coastline by Friday.

If this scenario pans out, we could see some enhanced rain chances for the drought stricken state, including us in Deep East Texas.

If our tropical wave does develop, make sure you check our hurricane center for all the latest coordinates, forecast track, satellite images, and more. And of course, we will have comprehensive analysis on KTRE-TV, your East Texas News and Weather Leader.

If You Think It's Hot Here...

2011-07-22T18:48:00.003-05:00

While it has been a scorcher so far this summer in East Texas, other parts of the country are stuck in the July Fry as well.

Check out the high temperatures felt across the nation today. It's not surprising to see triple digit heat in the southern half of the United States, but it is uncommon to see the triple digits expand as far north as the Canadian border. The exception and not the rule occurred today for most of the central and eastern half of the country.

The heat was so extreme on Friday, that some all time records were set in the Northeast United States.

Record Extremes

Newark, New Jersey: A high of 108°, which makes it the hottest temperature of all time.

Dulles International Airport in Virginia: The high of 105° was an all time record high at the airport.

Central Park, New York: The high of 104° was the 2nd hottest day on record.

Boston, Massachusetts: The high of 103° made it the 2nd hottest day of all time and the hottest day they have experienced in 85 years.

If you know of anyone from here in Deep East Texas visiting friends or family in the Northeast right now, give them a call and ask them how they are enjoying the cooler weather up north? I'm sure they will give you a loud and unhappy response.

Tropical Storm Bret Forms Off The Florida Coast

2011-07-17T23:35:00.004-05:00

On Sunday afternoon, hurricane hunters flew into an area of disturbed weather off the east coast of Florida, near the Bahamas. They found a closed low pressure center which led to Tropical Depression #2.

Just a few hours later, Tropical Depression #2 was upgraded to Tropical Storm Bret, making it our second named storm of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season.

While we have had some afternoon showers as of late, it would be nice to see Bret head in our direction and give us some widespread, soaking showers while remaining a tropical storm or depression.

Unfortunately, the steering currents will steer Bret towards the northeast by the middle part of this week, making it a non-threat to the United States.

While we are only on our second storm, remember that the hurricane season really doesn't get going until mid to late August. That is when the weather patterns become more favorable for tropical development, along with the fact that sea surface temperatures are much warmer later on in the summer months.

Keep it tuned to KTRE-TV. As always, we will have all the latest developments on the tropics.

Some Precious Liquid Gold Back in Your Forecast

2011-07-14T20:29:00.007-05:00

As I stepped outside the station on my dinner break this evening, I smiled as I saw things I have not seen in a while. Namely, rain clouds all around East Texas, a few lightning strikes, and that smell of rain when the ground is already wet. Maybe the best part was feeling the cooler temperatures as a result of the rain cooled air. Now that's what makes summer days feel better, doesn't it?

The rain that we have seen today started during the mid-afternoon hours and has continued well into the evening hours. StormTracker Live Doppler Network still continues to show some pockets of moderate to heavy rain falling in southern Angelina county, near Beulah and Zavalla.

This rain that developed is a sign of a weakening high pressure ridge, which has encompassed most of the state for the past couple of months.

With high pressure weakening and moving to the north, that will open up the door for some showers and storms to return to East Texas.

The showers and storms will form along a surface trough and upper level disturbance on Friday and then again on Saturday. This disturbance had been producing widespread rain over southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana the past couple of days. It has now finally shifted further to the south and west, leading to some rain today in our neck of the woods. Our Futurecast computer model shows more scattered thunderstorms developing on your Friday as the disturbance lingers over East Texas.

Due to this feature alone, we may not only see rain in the afternoon hours, but could possibly see some development overnight and into the early morning hours as well. That is why rain chances have gone up to 40%.

As you might imagine, the rain chances won't stay high for long. Once this surface boundary and upper air disturbance moves away, the rain chances will drop to 20% late this weekend, which means the odds of you getting a cooling rain shower go way down.

As always, you can track the rain on your computer any time of day. Just go to www.ktre.com/weather to view our live streaming radar and Interactive radar. Hopefully we will all get a little precious liquid gold from Mother Nature this time around.

East Texas Heat Reaching Dangerous Levels

2011-07-13T16:36:00.004-05:00

The song, "The Heat is On" by Glenn Frey would be fitting for our East Texas weather over the past couple of months. Only now, it is really on and has become more dangerous.

Our heat index or feels like temperatures this afternoon have gone over 105° and have been closer to 110° in many instances.

The heat index is determined by combining the actual air temperature with the relative humidity. Typically, during the afternoon, when the temperatures are in the low 100's, the relative humidity values are in the 20-30% range. When the highs only reach the lower to middle 90's, the relative humidity is much higher, say 50%. They have an inverse relationship and offset each other.

That's why sometimes residents in Arizona will tell you they have a dry heat. In some cases, a temperature of 102° may feel not as hot or oppressive as a temperature of 95°. Why would that be? Well, that's because the hotter temperature has the lower humidity value, therefore, it does not feel quite as humid and sauna-like.

A Heat Advisory remains in effect for Angelina, Nacogdoches counties, and all points north and east of there through Thursday evening. Unfortunately, those heat indices will be at dangerous levels again on Thursday.

The image above is a heat index chart. It plots the temperature on the horizontal axis vs. the humidity on the vertical axis. The value that comes together is the actual feels like value. You may want to refer to this so you can see just how hot it actually feels where you live.

More Chances for Storms to Continue

2011-07-05T22:47:00.003-05:00

We have seen multiple rounds of showers and storms over the past couple of days here in Deep East Texas.

These afternoon thunderstorms have helped keep temperatures a little cooler, but more importantly, have dumped some beneficial rainfall on the parched grounds of East Texas.

Have you noticed that these thunderstorm complexes have been moving from north to south? You might be thinking to yourself that this is an unusual direction. Well, it is, considering most of our rain and storm systems move from west to east, not north to south.

What has happened is the big dome of high pressure has moved off to the west and is currently centered over Colorado. With a clockwise flow around the periphery of the ridge, that has allowed any storms that form upstream (Oklahoma and Arkansas) to move downstream and get parts of the Pineywoods wet.

This weather pattern looks to hold for a couple of more days, which means you still have a chance of getting wet, even if you have not received rain in the past few days.

Of course you can track the rain on StormTracker Live Doppler Network by heading to our weather page at www.ktre.com/weather. It is there where you can view our live streaming radar anytime of day. You can also get the latest radar images on your cell phone by going to KTRE9 TO GO.

Recapping June Rainfall and a Drought Update

2011-06-30T16:49:00.004-05:00

We will end the month of June and ring in July much like we did the months of April and May: that is, hot and bone dry.

We ended up with 2.39" of rain for the month of June, which is 1.79" below our normal value for the 30 day period. Other than a two day period between June 21st and June 22nd, the rest of the month was virtually rain free in Deep East Texas.

As you can see from the graphic above, our 2011 rainfall departure stands at 6.47". When you consider we ended the 2010 calendar year with a deficit of 16.61", we are now about 23 inches behind in rainfall dating back to last year. Wow!

The drought conditions have not changed much, as you might imagine. By in large, all of East Texas is either in an "extreme" or "exceptional" drought.

According to the Texas Forest Service, 97% of the state is in a drought, with nearly 75% facing "exceptionally bad conditions."

Our state climatologist, Dr. Nielsen-Gammon, has said that this is one of the worst droughts Texas has seen since 1895, when the state first began keeping records.

This drought has led to billions of dollars in lost crops, and has led to several wildfires across the state. The Texas Forest Service says that since fire season began on November 15, 2010, almost 13,000 fires have burned 3.3 million acres across the Lone Star State.

This is a reminder to obey those firework restrictions this weekend and be safe.

Hello Arlene

2011-06-29T16:50:00.005-05:00

On Tuesday evening, Tropical Storm Arlene formed in the southern Gulf of Mexico in what is also known as the Bay of Campeche.

Arlene is our first named storm of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane season and looks to be a rather insiginficant threat for the United States.

The forecast track for Arlene calls for a landfall along the eastern coast of Mexico very early tomorrow morning.

This will affect most of Central Mexico and could bring flooding rains and mudslides to interior areas, especially areas near the higher mountainous terrain.

With Tropical Storm Arlene tracking well south of Texas, we will not see any of her moisture thrown in our direction. Considering we are in an "extreme" to "exceptional" drought, this is the type of tropical system we could use to help drop some soaking rains on East Texas soils.

Unfortunately, the ridge of high pressure, which has been keeping the Pineywoods high and dry, will also steer Arlene well to our south.

As always, you can stay up-to-date with the latest position, forecast track, satellite images, and more by visiting our Hurricane Center on our weather page. At this time, there are no signs of our "B" name storm developing within the next couple of days.

Getting the Best and Worst of Mother Nature

2011-06-21T22:55:00.005-05:00

After dealing with months of virtually no rain and wildfires raging out of control, the only thing we wanted was rain.

Well, we got some rain on Tuesday, and lots of it. That's the good news. The bad news was it came with a punch, in the form of severe weather.

These storms moved in from the Marshall and Shreveport areas late Tuesday afternoon. With all the moisture and heat we had in place, the atmosphere was ripe for these storms to maintain their strength, if not, strengthen even further.

Unfortunately, we had several reports of damaging winds, which knocked over trees and even took down a few power lines. As of Tuesday night, most of the power was being restored to residents in East Texas.

Alright, that's enough of the worst of what we dealt with on Tuesday. How about the bright side? Many areas picked up some incredible rainfall amounts as the storms merged over Lufkin and Nacogdoches. The end result was we saw many areas pick up anywhere from 1-3" of rain on average.

The image to your left shows some of the highest rainfall totals, as called in by our loyal weather watchers.

One of my colleagues here at the station said he received nearly three inches of rain in about an hour and a half. Wow! Talk about coming down in buckets.

So while we had a bittersweet symphony with the storms on Tuesday, I'll say it was more sweet than bitter. Heck, if I knew we could get two inches of rain for being without power for a couple of hours, I'll take it.

The good news is that more rain is in the forecast for Wednesday, and some of that rain will be heavy in spots.

Make sure you check our weather page for frequent updates on our live streaming radar as you head through your hump day on Wednesday.

Rain Relief on the Way to Drought Stricken East Texas

2011-06-19T15:26:00.004-05:00

The "Bearing" and "Powerline" wildfires continue to rage across the Pineywoods this afternoon. Make sure you check back frequently with ktre.com and our facebook fan page. Our reporters and news team will be working hard to ensure you get all the latest developments on the wildfires.

For the first time in what seems like an eternity, our weather pattern will be undergoing a shift this week. This shift will be for the better, as rain chances will be on the upswing as we head towards the middle part of your work week.

The image to your left is an upper level weather map at around 18,000 feet high in the atmosphere. Without getting to technical, the one main feature I want to point out is the ridge of high pressure that is located over Florida.
(Image: unisys 500 mb 72 hour forecast)

If you have been watching KTRE-TV for the past few weeks, one of the things I have mentioned just about every night is a big bubble of hot, high pressure, which has been situated on top of Texas. This forecast model shows that by Wednesday, that ridge of high pressure will loosen its grip on the state and slide east towards Florida.

With that high pressure ridge getting out of our way, we will finally see the door open up for some deep tropical moisture to surge into Deep East Texas starting on Tuesday. At the same time, a few disturbances will be moving through the Southern Plain states, helping to enhance the lift across our region.

(image: HPC 3 day rainfall total)

They Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) image shows three day (72hour) rainfall totals starting this evening and lasting through Wednesday evening. On average 1-2" of rain look to fall across portions of Deep East Texas.

It should be noted that we have rain forecasted starting Tuesday and lasting through the end of the week.

At this point, however, our best chances for seeing that precious liquid precipitation will be Tuesday through Wednesday.

Make sure you check back in with us over the next couple of days as more details start to emerge with our rainfall.

Crunching the Numbers on our Spring Heat

2011-06-16T16:58:00.002-05:00

You don't need a meteorologist to tell you that it has been a hot spring. Not only have temperatures been above normal since April, but in many cases, we have broken record highs and seen temperatures top out at the century mark on a number of occasions.

The main reason for our hot stretch of weather solely has to do with our extreme to exceptional drought which continues to hold its grip on Deep East Texas.

Over the last couple of days, I did some number crunching on our high temperatures. Here's some interesting factoids in a category I like to call "Did You Know."

Number of 100° Days
The Angelina County Airport, just south of Lufkin, has hit the century mark already 6 times this month, including today. Considering we have another 14 days to go, who knows how many more triple digit days we might see.

Record High Temperatures
Since May 1st, we have tied our record high temperature only 2 times, but have broken or surpassed the record on 7 different occasions.

Number of 90° Days in 2011
This stat may be the most staggering to date. In looking back at the highs since April 1st, we have hit or surpassed the 90° mark an astonishing 39 times. Of those occurrences, we had a temperature of 90° or higher 10 times in the month of April which is mind-boggling.

We can't end this blog entry before giving you some good news. It does look like the heat will let up by the middle of next week as our high pressure ridge breaks down. That let up in the heat will also come with better rain chances. I'll have more on this in the days ahead.

A Lunar Eclipse Outside of this Continent

2011-06-14T18:33:00.003-05:00

Tomorrow night, you will notice a full moon shining brightly in the night sky. What you won't see, however, is the total lunar eclipse that most of planet earth will get to view.

A lunar eclipse can only occur during a full moon. This results from the moon's orbit around the earth in which the moon becomes fully engulfed in the Earth's shadow.

Not On our Continent

Unfortunately, residents in North America will not be able to view this total lunar eclipse, which starts at 12:24pm our time on Wednesday and lasts until 6pm.

This lunar eclipse will be the longest total lunar eclipse in eleven years and is expected to last around eleven minutes.

Part of the eclipse will be visible in South America, Europe, Asia, and Australia, while the entirety of the event can be seen in Africa and the Middle East.

Interesting Stats on our Drought

2011-06-07T17:20:00.003-05:00

When I was at Texas A&M studying meteorology, one of my professors was Dr. John Nielsen-Gammon. Not only is he a professor at the greatest university in the world, Dr. Nielson-Gammon is also the Texas state climatologist.

Just recently, the Texas AgriLife Extension Service interviewed our state climatologist on just how bad our current drought is and where it ranks all time.

"Based on Palmer Drought Severity Index values, this is the third-worst drought Texas has ever seen in the month of May," Nielsen-Gammon said. "Records go back to 1895. May also marks the end of the driest eight-month period on record."

Dr. Nielsen-Gammon also stated in one of his recent blogs that the two worst droughts occurred in the years of 1918 and 1956.

It should be noted that according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, nearly 50% of the state remains in an "exceptional" drought, which is the worst drought category possible. In addition, more than 90% of the state of Texas is either experiencing a "severe" or "exceptional" drought.

2011 Hurricane Season is Underway

2011-06-01T16:46:00.004-05:00

Today is the official start of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane season. We are now entering a six month stretch in which the tropics will be monitored on a daily basis. The season always starts on June 1st and runs through the end of November.

This is the list of names we will be using in the Atlantic Basin this year. It should be noted that there are six lists of names that rotate every six years.

The 2011 Atlantic storm names is the same list that was used back in our record setting season of 2005. As you look through the list, you will notice that a lot of the names look familiar.

What you may not know is that we have five new names that are replacing historic hurricanes from that 2005 season. Don will replace Dennis, Katia replaces Katrina, Rina replaces Rita, Sean will replace Stan, and Whitney has been added as she replaces Wilma.

Already a System Worth Watching

On this June 1st, there is a flare up of showers and storms associated with a disturbance tracking through Florida. While this system has very little chance of developing into our first named storm, it could give us a few showers this weekend as it tracks westward through the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane Center is Your One Stop Shop

Remember that you can stay up-to-date with any developments in the tropics by going to our Hurricane Center. It is there where you can get satellite images in the tropics, the latest storm positions, forecast track, and more.

Slight Improvement in the Ongoing Drought

2011-05-26T16:40:00.004-05:00

After receiving an average of 1-3" of rain from two storm systems in as many weeks, the vegetation and plants have perked up just a bit.

In driving around town earlier this week, I could not help but notice the grass looks a little greener and the ground not as crunchy as it did when we started the month.

While we still have a significant drought ongoing, things have improved slightly for most of us, thanks to some soaking showers and thunderstorms the past couple of weeks.

The image left is from a few weeks ago. Notice that pretty much all of Deep East Texas was in an "exceptional" drought. That is a stage four drought and the worst possible stage of drought to be in.

This past Tuesday, the updated drought showed that a good chunk of East Texas has improved from an exceptional drought to an extreme drought. Even though it is only a bump up from a stage four to a stage three, at least that's an improvement.

Unfortunately, it looks like a big dome of high pressure will be building overhead this holiday weekend, meaning the heat and dry weather will be returning to the Pineywoods.

Another Active Atlantic Hurricane Season Expected

2011-05-19T20:05:00.004-05:00

Earlier today, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued their outlook for the upcoming 2011 Atlantic hurricane season.

NOAA'S Outlook calls for 12-18 storms, 6-10 of which will become hurricanes, and 3-6 of those hurricanes being major hurricanes (category 3 or higher).

Here are the other outlooks and predictions:

Dr. William Gray and his team at Colorado St. University

16 named storms

9 hurricanes

5 major hurricanes

Accu Weather

15 named storms

8 hurricanes

3 major hurricanes

Keep in mind that an average year consists of 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. The bottom line is that all the different forecasting companies are predicting an above average year.

There are basically two main reasons why we are expecting another active hurricane season.

1.) A waning, but still existent La Nina phase, which looks to continue into the summer months. Wind shear in the upper atmosphere becomes very light, therefore, allowing storms to develop in a more favorable environment.

2.) Warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the Gulf, Caribbean, and Atlantic ocean. This added warmth creates the extra fuel for these tropical heat engines to develop and do so at a very rapid pace.

Hurricane season officially begins on June 1st and runs through the end of November. The peak of hurricane season takes place in late August through late September.

Receiving a Nice Soaking

2011-05-13T16:20:00.007-05:00

A slow moving storm system provided East Texans with not one, but two days of heavy rain and thunderstorms.

Round one came in on Wednesday night from North Central Texas, providing us with substantial rain for the first time in several weeks.

On Thursday, round two came in from a thunderstorm complex in South Central Texas.

When it was all said and done, several communities in Deep East Texas picked up some very nice rainfall totals.

As you can see from our weather watcher rainfall reports, many areas saw anywhere from 1-3" of rain, with Tim Martin in Broaddus reporting 3.60" and Lane Lowery in Huntington receiving 3.47".

While the rain was much welcome and needed, we still have a long way to go before our "exceptional" drought status can be reduced. Keep in mind that burn bans are still in place for all of our local counties except Houston county.

Precious Liquid Water to Fall from the Sky

2011-05-11T16:45:00.000-05:00

A cold front and dryline will interact with a warm and humid airmass to give the Piney Woods a good shot at rain and thunderstorms on Thursday.

We are already seeing some light to moderate showers across East Texas this afternoon, but our better rain chances will occur on Thursday.

Our computer models have been fairly consistent on developing showers and thunderstorms over East Texas over the next 24 to 36 hours.

Whenever we see consistency on our models over a span of two to three days, that usually indicates there is fairly high confidence in that particular event taking place.

Our Microcast computer model shows that many areas could receive anywhere from 0.50" to 2.0" of rain. Keep in mind that this does not mean the total you see for your neighborhood is what you will get. This is an average rainfall amount based on potential. It is possible some of you may not even get a quarter of an inch on Thursday, while your neighbor up the road gets over an inch, depending upon where the heavier rain cells and thunderstorms develop.

Nevertheless, this is something to get excited about as we should see some decent chances for rainfall we desperately need.

Don't forget to download our newest KTRE 9 Weather App., now available for all Android and I-Phone users.

A Neat Website for Tracking Tornadoes

2011-05-06T20:21:00.002-05:00

In light of the recent deadly tornado outbreak, there is a website that many of you might find rather useful.

If you go to www.tornadopaths.org/date , you can find tornadoes that have tracked across the United States since 1950.

Just type in your zip code and search for a specific date to find out if a tornado occurred in a specific location, including here in Deep East Texas.

So if you have ever wondered about a tornado occurring in and near your community, you can now check it out on this site.

Summer Fest Texas

2011-05-05T16:36:00.006-05:00

If you are looking for some entertainment this weekend, the place to be will be the George H. Henderson, Jr. Expo Center in Lufkin.

Several musicians and country music groups will be performing, starting on Friday evening at 5pm. This event will continue into Saturday, with gates opening at 10am and going through Saturday night.

Some of the music artists include Josh Abbott, Whiskey Meyers, The Lords of Denman, and the Buffalo Nickel Band to name a few.

SFA's Steel Drum Band will bring a local flavor to the party, as they will be peforming as well.

This might be the perfect thing to take mom to as an early treat for Mother's Day on Sunday.

Damaging Wind Reports

2011-05-02T20:40:00.003-05:00

In the last blog post, you saw that the National Weather Service in Shreveport confirmed two tornadoes that touched down in Deep East Texas last Monday night (4/25/2011).

While they were down surveying storm damage, they also filed several reports of wind damage that came from the rear flank downdraft of those supercell thunderstorms.

A rear flank downdraft is an area of warm, dry air that comes with the rapid descending part of a thunderstorm. A lot of times, this fast current of winds that rushes out of a thunderstorms can create a lot of wind damage.

Here is what the NWS determined from those supercell thunderstorms last week in regards to wind damage. Note: This is the verbatim of the report they filed.

{A 2 MILE SWATH OF SEVERE WIND DAMAGE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REAR FLANK DOWNDRAFT FROM THE WELLS TORNADO. MINOR ROOF DAMAGE OCCURRED TO HOMES ALONG FM 1819. THE OLD REDTOWN SCHOOL AND SENIOR CITIZEN CENTER BOTH LOST PARTS OF THEIR METLA ROOFS. A BARN AND SEVERAL OUTBUILDINGS ON CHOPPIN ROAD LOST THEIR ROOFS. HUNDREDS OF TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN FROM REDTOWN TO POLLOCK ALONG FM 1819..HWY 103...HWY7 AND HWY 69. WINDS WERE ESTIMATED FROM 90 TO 110 MPH. WIDTH OF DAMAGE WAS 2 MILES WIDE.}

{A ONE HALF MILE WIDE DAMAGE PATH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REAR FLANK DOWNDRAFT OF THE LUFKIN TORNADO RESULTED IN SEVERAL TREES UPROOTED OR SNAPPED BLOCKING PORTIONS OF BLUE ROCK LANE...RICHARDSON ROAD AND HWY 60. WIND SPEED WAS ESTIMATED UP TO 70 MPH.}

{AT 10:40PM...NWS STORM SURVEY NOTED A FEW TREES AND NUMEROUS TREE LIMBS WERE BLOWN DOWN ALONG HWY 69 FROM SOUTH OF HUNTINGTON IN ANGELINA COUNTY TO THE JASPER COUNTY LINE. THIS WAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE WITH WINDS ESTIMATED AT 60-70 MPH.}

{AT 11:13PM..NWS STORM SURVEY NOTED THAT NUMEROUS TREES WERE SNAPPED AND UPROOTED ALONG AND EASWT OF HWY 63 IN ANGELINA COUNTY TO THE WESTERN SHORE OF LAKE SAM RAYBURN TO JUST NORTH OF THE JASPER COUNTY LINE. THIS WAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THUNDERSTORMS WIND DAMAGE WITH WINDS ESTIMATED NEAR 75 MPH.}

Two Tornadoes Confirmed by the Shreveport Weather Service

2011-05-02T16:21:00.003-05:00

After surveying the storm damage in Deep East Texas, the National Weather Service (NWS) in Shreveport has confirmed that two tornadoes touched down last Monday night.

According to the NWS, the first tornado occurred in Wells at approximately 9:37pm in the far southeastern raches of Cherokee county. The tornado was estimated to be around a quarter of a mile wide with a path length of 10 miles. This first tornado has been classified as an EF1, with winds estimated to be around 110 mph.

This tornado caused roof damage to a home on County Road 2829 and then continued into far western Angelina county, where it uprooted and damged several trees along FM 1819 and County Road 13. Several homes in the area suffered roof damage and some outbuildings were reported to be destroyed as well.

The tornado continued its path along Choppin Road near Winter Lane, before finally lifting on the west side of the Pollock community at around 10:04pm.

The NWS in Shreveport also found antoher tornado that touched down at 10:13pm in Angelina county along Richardson Road, just northwest of Lufkin. This tornado had a width of only 25 yards and had a path length of one mile. This second tornado was weaker than the one in Wells, and was classified as an EF0, with winds of around 80 mph.

During the tornadoes short one mile journey through western Angelina county, minor roof damage occurred to a mobile home on Royce Oliver Road and Richardson Road.

The best news to report from these two tornadoes is not only were there no fatalities, but no major injuries were suffered as well.

There were also reports of damaging winds that led to damage as well. Another blog entry on those results will be posted soon.

One of the Deadliest Tornado Outbreaks Ever

2011-04-29T19:57:00.004-05:00

The death toll from this past Wednesday's tornado outbreak has now reached 318, as of this blog entry. That makes this week's tornado outbreak the deadliest on record in the past 50 years, surpassing the 307 deaths that occured with the Super Outbreak of April 3, 1974.

The image to your left shows the storm reports from Wednesday morning through Thursday morning.

Every red triangle on the map represents a tornado report. What's unclear is how many seperate tornadoes there were. Often times, there are duplicate reports as the same tornado could have caused damage in different towns and in different states.

The April 27-28, 2011, tornado outbreak is the deadliest since the outbreak of March 21, 1932, when 332 people lost their lives.

It should be noted that the deadliest outbreak off all time in recorded history was back on March 18, 1925, with 747 fatalities that spanned 7 states.

According to NOAA, the National Weather Service (NWS) issued severe weather outlooks five days in advance of the severe weather outbreak. They also issued tornado watches hours in advance, and tornado warnings with an average lead time of 24 minutes.

When I look back on the events that took place this week, it is mind-numbing and jaw dropping to say the least. You would never think that in a day where we have great weather technology, advanced warning systems, and strict building codes, we would see so much death and destruction.

The one big thing that stood out to me is that these long tracked, long-lived tornadoes moved through highly populated cities, such as Tuscaloosa and Birmingham, Alabama. If you put an EF4 or EF5 tornado through a city with a population of at least a quarter of a million people, there will be a huge amount of casualties, regardless of lead warning time.

Most of the deaths were from residents who lived in mobile homes and shelters that were not strong enough to withstand the brute force of winds over 200 mph. This is why we tell you to abandon mobile homes immediately.

One question that will get asked in the future is "What can we do better to save lives?" Many meteorologists in my profession will want to focus in on research as to why tornadoes form and how can we increase warning time?

The fact that there was plenty of lead time for this outbreak means that it is almost a mute point to want to question that mindset. I personally feel we have to look at the social impacts as to how we can construct homes and storm shelters to assure the safety of everyone. My advice to people living in mobile homes or weak structures would be this: have a storm shelter built. Yes, you may lose your home in a future storms, but you could save your life.

Long Tracked Supercell Thunderstorms

2011-04-27T15:05:00.012-05:00

The two day severe weather outbreak was largely contributed by two upper air disturbances that tracked through the Southern Plain states.

The reason why we saw severe weather with this spring storm was two fold. One was the fact we are later in the spring season. The fact we are late in April means that the days are longer and the sun angle is higher. That, in turn, leads to warmer temperatures and higher instability when these systems move in.

The other reason why we had two nights in a row of active weather had to do with storms firing along the dryline in North Central Texas. As you have heard by now, the dryline is a surface feature that separates the warm, humid air, from the warm and dry air. Often times, we get storms that fire up along dryline, and it is these storms, which traveled over 200 miles and made their way into East Texas.

Here is a timeline and a look at how the storms evolved on Monday afternoon and Monday evening.

Time 1: Supercells developed just east of Waco along the dryline and began their eastward trek.

Time 2: By 8pm, the two supercells, which have already produced a couple of tornadoes, now enter Houston county, affecting areas from Grapeland to Crockett. While no tornado was produced, strong winds and large hail caused damage near Crockett.

Time 3: At 9:40pm, the two supercells come together and merge over Houston, Trinity, Cherokee, and western Angelina counties. It is at this time when a brief tornado touched down just south of Wells, just north of Highway 103 and Highway 7.

Time 4: At 10:50pm, the supercells move into Angelina county, which prompts several tornado warnings. While no tornado was reported, strong winds did cause minor damage. The cell near Huntington moved over Zavalla, producing golf ball size hail shortly after this image.

Time 5: During the overnight hours, the two isolated supercells evolve into a cluster of thunderstorms that produced damaging winds and another isolated tornado near Onalaska and Lake Livingston.

This sequence is what occured on Monday night. Tuesday night was very similar as storms moved in from the west along the dryline. Thankfully, though, no tornadoes were reported with last night's storms.

Remember that you can always give us your severe weather reports by sending an email to weather@ktre.com.

You can also upload your storm photos to sendit@ktre.com.

The "Cap" Finally Broke and the End Result...

2011-04-26T01:07:00.004-05:00

The proverbial cap finally weakened and gave way to a significant severe weather outbreak for East Texas on Monday night.

As a result, we had nearly 100 reports of severe eather across North Central, Northeast, and Deep East Texas.

We had everything from large hail to damaging winds, and even isolated tornadoes.

As of this posting, we have had two tornadoes confirmed in and near Wells around 9:45pm Monday evening. At this point, no significant injuries have been reported.

In addition to those two tornado reports, we also had reports of golf ball size hail in Zavalla, and damaging winds in Brookeland.

The National Weather Service will more than likely be surveying storm damage in the days ahead. As they do so, we may get more reports of tornadoes than what we have confirmed at this point.

A Mini-April Heat Wave

2011-04-21T21:22:00.004-05:00

If it seems this past week has not just been abnormally warm, but downright hot and uncomfortable, you would be correct.

After looking back at some of the climate data from the month of April so far, it is mind boggling to see how hot we have already been. Remember, summer is still two months away, and our average high for this time of year is around 79°.

As you can see from the graphic above, we have already hit the 90° mark six times at the Angelina County Airport. We have also dealt with three record high temperatures in as many days. One of those record highs tied a previous mark, while the last two record highs have broken the previous highs on those particular days.

The sad news is that the record high temperatures for Friday and the upcoming Easter weekend will all be in jeopardy as more 90° temperatures are in the forecast.

If we don't get any rain anytime soon, the month of April will go down as one of the driest and warmest Aprils on record.

A Tornado Outbreak in Dixie Alley

2011-04-15T20:18:00.009-05:00

It has been a dangerous and even deadly day for residents living in Dixie Alley, which includes the states of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.

In addition to large hail and damaging winds, numerous tornadoes were reported today, making it one of the most active days (tornado wise) we have seen so far this spring.

One string of tornadoes occured in Jackson, Mississippi earlier today. These two photographs are courtesy of our sister station, WLBT, in Jackson, Mississippi. This wedge tornado started in Clifton, a western suburb of Jackson, and then plotted along eastward, affecting the northern half of Jackson around the midday hours. The pictures tell the story of how volatile this tornado was. So far, there have been several injuries reported and widespread damage in the greater Jackson area.

And while this particular tornado was strong, it was not the only significant tornado we saw today.

Take a look at the map above. All those cutouts represent severe weather reports from around the country in just the past 24 hours. The one thing that stands out is not just the total number of reports, 341, but rather, the number of twisters we saw today. As of this blog entry, there have been 55 tornadoes across the country, most of which occured in the Southeastern United States, also known as Dixie Alley.

Usually when we get severe weather outbreaks across the country, we see lots of wind and hail reports, with just a few tornadoes. Today, however, was far different. The reason why there were so many tornadoes today was due to the wind shear (changing of the wind direction and speed with height) that was present. The rotating winds resulted from the jetstream being situtated right ont top of the Deep South, allowing for any updrafts to rotate and produce tornadoes.

And while we only got limited rainfall last night, in hindsight, it might have been a good thing. After all, would we have been better off dealing with just another day of no rain, or would you rather have received a little rain and lots of hail, high winds, and tornadoes?

Comparing Lake Levels From This Time Last Year

2011-04-13T20:25:00.003-05:00

The drought has taken its toll on crops, water usage, and so much more in the past few months. It has also forced the county judges to impose burn bans for ten East Texas counties as of today. The other thing our exceptional drought has done is caused our lake levels to really dry up. Each Wednesday, we show you the current lake level and its departure from its normal level. Instead of just giving you the current level, I decided to go back and do some research. I wanted to compare the lake level departures we are experiencing now from what they were a year ago at this same time.

As you can see, there is a big discrepancy from what the levels were in 2010 versus where we are today. The only lake that has not changed much is Lake Livingston. The other three major lakes (Toledo Bend, Sam Rayburn, and Nacogdoches) have changed significantly and for the worst.

Due to the low levels, please use caution if you plan on taking any small craft or boats out on any area lakes over the next couple of months. You will probably see more stumps and vegetation more so now than ever before.

Drought Goes From Bad to Worse

2011-04-07T20:00:00.003-05:00

The drought conditions have gotten worse for us in East Texas, as some areas have been upgraded to a stage 4 "exceptional" drought. If you recall, the past few weeks, most of East Texas was in a severe to extreme drought. That has now changed to a situation in which the northern portions of East Texas are in an extreme drought, and areas from Trinity to Corrigan to Zavalla to Toledo Bend are now in an exceptional drought.

The shading of maroon represents that "exceptional" drought and does include southern portions of Angelina county.

This is the worst possible drought category you can fall into, as there is no other category below this one.

The persistent warm and dry weather has resulted from a La Nina weather pattern, which has held true to form since it took shape last summer.

Unfortunately, there are no real signs of a weather pattern shift that would lead to significantly better rain chances.

While many counties are not under burn bans at the present time, it would not be wise to do any outdoor burning as the parched soils and gusty winds will create a high fire danger for the next several weeks.

Cashing in on Some Rain

2011-04-04T21:31:00.003-05:00

A line of showers and storms rumbled through East Texas earlier today, providing East Texans with some brief, but heavy downpours.

A cap or "lid" in the atmosphere kept the storms from being severe when they rolled into East Texas. So instead of seeing large hail and damaging winds, we ended up with some heavy rain, which was certainly welcomed on all acounts.

Here are the rainfall totals as called in by our weather watchers. On average, many areas saw anywhere from a quarter to a third of an inch, with some lucky viewers getting over a half inch of rain.

Drought Conditions Go From Bad to Worse

2011-03-31T20:03:00.010-05:00

There's no secret that we have been in a drought for quite some time, dating back to last fall when we entered into a La Nina type weather pattern.

A La Nina weather set-up usually means we see warmer and drier conditions than normal. That has indeed been the case now for the past 6-8 months.

About two months ago, many of our communities in Deep East Texas were in a moderate to severe drought.

Last month, several areas were upgraded to an extreme drought, which is a stage 3 drought. Keep in mind, a stage 4, or exceptional drought, is the worst drought possible.

Due to our lack of rainfall and persistent dry conditions, all of East Texas is now in a stage 3 extreme drought. As you can see from the image above, that extreme drought stretches all the way to the Arklatex and as far south as Conroe and Silsbee in Southeast Texas.

We are not the only one's seeing the parched soils. In fact, most of the Lone Star State is in a drought of some kind.

The image to your left shows that 65% of the state is experiencing a severe or extreme drought at the present time. Over 85% of the state is in a drought, period. The only exceptions are a small section of the panhandle and a small area along the lower Texas coastline.

An extreme drought is about a 1 in 30 year drought. It is usually an indication that water shortages will be enacted soon, and crops and pasture losses are likely.

The long term climate models suggest we may not see things improve anytime soon. The climate models indicate that the warmer and drier conditions will prevail for the next few months.

Discrepancy in Computer Models Leaves us Guessing

2011-03-25T17:36:00.006-05:00

You rarely hear me say on the air "I have no idea what the weather will do this weekend or next week." After all, that is my job, right? To forecast the weather is to know the weather and how all the forces in the atmosphere influence weather features and weather patterns.

When meteorologists like myself make forecasts, we often come away with two modes of thought. Either we are fairly confident on how the forecast will play out as predicited, or not very confident at all.

You can be confident in your forecast, but that does not guarantee that you will be accurate. The other scenario is true, however. We may make a forecast based on our instinct, or gut feeling, and could be dead on, even though we did not have high confidence from the start.

So where does our confidence in making a forecast come from? The answer is simple: the computer models that we look at on a daily basis.

A computer model is exactly what is says, a model. There are always errors in computer models due to the bad data that goes into them from the start. We also have several models to view and they each give us different outcomes.

The problem we run into is when the different computer models we look at don't agree with each other. When that happens, we say there is uncertainty in the forecast.

This is the problem we have for our weather next week, where the different models are giving us different solutions on the timing of cold fronts, and the likelihood of precipitation.

To add to the issue, the computer models I've looked at the past couple of days have been flip flopping. In other words, If model A shows solution A and model B shows solution B, those are different solutions. But when they flip flop, model A may show a solution similar to solution B and vice versa.

Alright, I'm sure you are confused by now. What I'm getting at is the discrepancy in the computer models makes a forecast very challenging. That's where going on experience and instincts takes over. It's what also makes our job more challenging.

The Super Moon

2011-03-21T21:40:00.004-05:00

Did you see the super moon this weekend? If you thought the moon looked brighter and bigger than it normally does, you would be correct in your thinking.

The full moon this past weekend wass classified as a "Super Moon" because it was the closest the moon had been to planet earth since March of 1993.

Picture courtesy of: rambo3715 from San Augustine.

The close proximity to earth allowed the moon to be 14% bigger than normal and 30% brighter than its usual appearance in a full moon setting. This close distance to the earth was a result of the gravitational pull the earth had on the moon, as well as the ellipitical orbit of the moon.

The next super moon is predicted to take place on November 14, 2016.

Temperatures Soaring into the 80's by Weeks End

2011-03-15T20:45:00.004-05:00

If you and your family plan on hitting any East Texas lakes this spring break week, the weather should suit you quite nicely.

In looking at our current weather pattern and what may evolve over the next five to seven days, it's safe to say that no major storm systems will be headed our way anytime soon. This means the prospects for rain and thunderstorms will be virtually slim to none.

It also means our temperatures will be trending upward as well. The image above shows what the jetstream will look like by the end of the week.

A trough along the west coast will keep many of those areas unsettled, with the threat for some heavy rain likely. A ridge of high pressure, however, will be situated over us and much of the Deep South by the weekend. That area of high pressure in the upper atmosphere (20-30,000 feet) will steer any storms away from us, and at the same time, allow us to warm up significantly.

I am forecasting high temperatures the next couple of days to reach the middle to upper 70's. By Friday, many of your backyard thermometers will show low 80's, and some middle 80's will be possible by the weekend.

Needless to say, we will be warmer than normal, with afternoon highs by this weekend running some 10-14° above normal. I think it is safe to say that spring is already here.

Don't Start Your Spring Planting Just Yet

2011-03-10T19:54:00.005-06:00

I have heard from several of you that said you were going to start buying flowers and start your spring planting. My response: "Not so fast."

Even though we have had a two to three week stretch of unseasonably warm weather as of late, let us not forget that we are in the month of March. Our average low this time of year is around 45°. With cold fronts coming in every four to five days, we can still see a light freeze this time of year.

The front that blew through on Tuesday night allowed our temperatures to fall into the lower and middle 30's this morning.

While many of us stayed above freezing this morning, the A.L. Mangham Jr. Regional Airport southwest of Nacogdoches did show a morning low of 30°.

With clear skies, dry air, and light winds in place tonight, we will see another chilly night, with lows falling into the lower to middle 30's once again.

It should be noted that even if your community stays above freezing, tonight's chill could harm or kill the newly planted vegetation, especially if you have plants or flowers sensitive to the cold conditions.

Keep in mind that our average last freeze of the winter/spring season is around mid-March. So while we may be done with the Arctic blasts, the light freezes may still hang around for a few more weeks.

Another Storm, But Not Much Rain

2011-03-07T20:33:00.004-06:00

Another fast moving storm will put out of the Rockies and into the Deep South on Tuesday. Even though we will have plenty of moisture to work with, we are not expecting much rainfall with this Tuesday storm.

The combination of limited instability (stable air) and the fast storm motion will keep most of us in Deep East Texas from receiving some beneficial rainfall.

Missing out on the rain and storms may not be all bad; that's because any storms that develop on Tuesday afternoon and evening could turn severe based on the atmospheric conditions that will be in place.

Right now, the Storm Prediction Center out of Norman, OK, has placed portions of Northeast Texas, Arkansas, and Louisiana under a "slight" risk for severe weather.

That means any storms that develop and move through these areas have the potential to produce large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes.

If you look at the risk area closely you will notice that we are not included in the risk area. That's not to say we can't see a few strong storms, but the majority of the active weather should bypass us once again to our north and east.

Rainfall Recap for February

2011-03-01T16:47:00.003-06:00

After getting the year off to a wet start, we dried out considerably in the month of February.

Even though February is the shortest month of the year, we still only received 0.76" of rain at the Angelina County Airport, just south of Lufkin.

We typically average a little over three inches in the month of February, which gave us a deficit for the month of -2.41".

For the year, however, we are still hanging on to a surplus, albeit, it is not much of one. Of the 7.90" of rain we have received in the first two months of 2011, 7.14" of it came in the month of January.

Right now we have a rain surplus of only 0.28". If we go another week without any significant rainfall, we will have a deficit on our hands. Remember, we ended 2010 with a deficit of over sixteen inches.

As a result, severe to extreme drought conditions still persist across East Texas.

Picking Up Some Rain While Avoiding the Severe Weather

2011-02-24T21:00:00.005-06:00

The storm system which brought us rain and a few rumbles in the sky earlier today, managed to spare us from the severe weather.

That was not the case, however, for our neighbors in northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas, and Mississippi.

This is a plot of every severe weather report across the Deep South on Thursday. You can see that we were not that far off from experiencing some of those severe weather reports.

An overwhelming majority of the storm reports were from wind damage. The line of storms that blew through here ended up producing some gusty winds at times. However, further to the north and east, where the atmosphere was a little more unstable, these areas saw winds gust up to 70 to 80 mph. That caused widespread damage to trees and power lines. It also led to several accidents on major highways.

We, however, were more fortunate, and just picked up a few downpours.

As you can see from the weather watchers that reported in, many areas picked up anywhere from a tenth of an inch to a half inch. Overall, the average looked to be around one quarter of an inch.

Severe Weather Awareness Week

2011-02-22T16:42:00.004-06:00

Severe Weather Awareness Week runs through this Friday. It is during this time you should think about your safety plans and actions in case a severe thunderstorm or possible tornado heads for your neighborhood.

When we mention the word "severe", what does that mean? Well, it means a storm that contains any of the following.

1.) A tornado.
2.) Hail of 1" in diameter (size of quarters) or larger.
3.) Damaging wind gusts in excess of 50 knots or 58 mph.

If a thunderstorm produces any one of those three items listed above, a storm is classified is severe. While you only need one of those to occur, sometimes storms can contain multiple entities.

There are a couple of things to take note of this week.

All schools should do a tornado drill on Wednesday, February 23rd, between 9:00 and 9:30am. It is during this time all school districts in East Texas should do a mock tornado drill as if it were the real deal. By practicing this drill, all faculty and students will be prepared in case a tornado warning is issued where you school is located come this spring.
If you are interested in becoming a storm spotter and relaying information to KTRE and the National Weather Service, there will be a SKYWARN Storm Spotter Training session this Thursday, February 24th at 6pm at the Commisioner's Court in Downtown Lufkin.

Budget Cuts Could Hit Weather Hard

2011-02-18T21:01:00.002-06:00

We have heard of the recent budget cuts proposed by Congress on some of the government funded jobs.

Weather could be one area that gets hard in the near future. As you might imagine, there are concerns on what this may mean for meteorologist staffing and the ability to inform the public.

Here is a statement that was released by the National Weather Service Union earlier today.

Prevailing Conditions
NWSEO News Releases
House Fiscal 11 Budget Proposal Could Devastate
The National Weather Service’s Life-saving Warnings and Forecasts
(February 15, 2011) As hurricane and tornado seasons approach, funding for the NWS will be nearly 30 percent less than the first half of 2011, if the Continuing Resolution proposed by the House majority is enacted. Congress’s move will necessitate work furloughs and force rolling closures of Weather Warning Offices across the country. The effects will be felt in every aspect of daily life, including emergency management, television weather, and information used by our nation’s citizens for transportation, commerce and agriculture.
The National Hurricane Center, the Storm Prediction Center, the Aviation Weather Center, the Tsunami Warning Centers, River Forecast Centers and local Weather Forecast Offices located in communities across the nation are all victims of Congress’s budget cut.
“When the budget blade drops on the NWS, it will be felt around the country,” said NWSEO President Dan Sobien. “In the next hurricane, flood, tornado or wildfire, lives will be lost and people will ask what went wrong. Congress’s cuts and the devastation to the wellbeing of our nation’s citizens are dangerously wrong.”
Reduced funding will mean upper air observations currently made twice a day might be reduced to every other day. Buoy and surface weather observations, the backbone of most of the weather and warning systems, may be temporarily or permanently discontinued. Delays in replacement satellites run the risk of losing key weather data that can be obtained no other way. “This information is vital for weather modeling and essential for accurate tornado watches and warnings,” said Sobien, “
The National Hurricane Center is not immune to these cuts as furloughs and staffing cuts will add strain to the program. The Hurricane Hunter Jet, which provides lifesaving data and helps determine a hurricane’s path, could also be eliminated.
Recent advances in aviation weather forecasting have resulted in as much as a 50 percent reduction in weather related flight delays. Unfortunately, these improvements are also on the chopping block as the money to fund the programs will be discontinued.
“Decreased accuracy of forecasts is going to devastate every aspect of our daily lives. There will be a large scale economic impact on aviation, agriculture, and the cost shipping food and other products,” warns Sobien. “Most importantly, Congress is going set back our ability to save lives by decades.”
-NWSEO-
Media contact: National Weather Service Employees Organization
Dan Sobien, President NWSEO, 202-420-1043

The Outlook for the Rest of February: Drier and Warmer Than Normal

2011-02-15T16:30:00.006-06:00

Now that the weather pattern has shifted well off to our north, we have been able to bask in some February sunshine and warmer than normal temperatures.

It has also been much drier around these parts lately, now that the storm track has shifted to the northern third of the country.

This is the weather pattern we had for most of the fall, which led to the severe to extreme drought across the Piney Woods.

The Climate Prediction Center's outlook through the end of February calls for warmer than normal conditions for most of the Southeast United States, including us here in East Texas.

This will be due in large part to a ridge of high pressure situated over the area, which will prevent any major Arctic outbreaks from making it this far south.

At the same time, the Climate Prediciton Center's outlook keeps us drier than normal for the rest of the month.

In the meantime, wetter than normal conditions will be seen in the northern half of the country, stretching from Washington to the Great Lakes and to the Atlantic seaboard.

Sunny and Warmer Days Ahead

2011-02-11T20:38:00.003-06:00

A shift in the weather pattern will allow us to warm-up and start thawing out over the weekend. Even though we will still have to endure the morning chill, the afternoons will be very nice, thanks to wall to wall sunshine.

The reason for our sunny and warmer weather is largely due to the fact that the Jetstream will be retreating well off to the north.

As you well know by now, the Jetstream is something I like to show on air from time to time, because it really helps tell the story of not only where the storms are located, but also where the warm and cold regions are as well.

With the Jetstream shifting to the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest regions, we will see a ridge of high pressure develop and move overhead. This high pressure ridge will steer the storm systems well away from us, while at the same time, allow for warmer temperatures to re-emerge across the Piney Woods. In fact, we may be about 10 degrees above normal by the middle of next week, as highs climb into the middle 70's.

The good news is that this pattern may hold for most of next week. So now is the time to partake in outdoor activities and soak up some of the sun's rays. After all, you just never know what storm might be looming down the road.

A Cold Rain, Sleet, and Snow all Possible

2011-02-08T20:16:00.004-06:00

As we get one day closer to the arrival of our approaching winter storm, there have been some tweaks to our current thinking regarding precipitation type and amount.

I have color coded the map so that it is very easy for you to see what you can expect where you live on Wednesday.

Our southern counties and communities (green shading) can mainly expect just a cold rain with temperatures in the middle to upper 30's. A brief change over to sleet is possible in these areas, but not probable.

Our central counties and communities (blue shading) can expect the precipitation to start out as a cold rain in the morning. As we head towards lunch time and the afternoon hours, that rain could mix with sleet at times. A complete transition to snow is possible by the afternoon, but accumulations will generally be less than an inch. It should also be noted that the ground temperatures will be fairly warm, so any snow that does fall will not stick to the grassy and road surfaces.

Finally, our far northern counties and communities (pink shading) can expect early morning rain to quickly change over to sleet and then eventually snow. With the temperature profile aloft becoming very cold, the snowfall amounts will be higher with general totals ranging from 2-4". With temperatures at the surface expected to dip below freezing in these areas on Wednesday afternoon, the snow that does fall will have a chance to accumulate and stick to roads and other vegetation.

Needless to say, if you are traveling north towards Tyler, Longview, and/or Shreveport, get ready for a wintry mess in these locations.

The farther south you travel, the less likely you will be impacted by winter weather (outside of the cold of course).

You can stay up-to-date with any changes in our weather, including updates on the storm by following me on Twitter. Just go to twitter.com/KTREwx to follow all my updates. If you receive sleet or snow where you live, please re-tweet (RT) me so that I can pass on the information to everyone.

Another Winter Storm: This Time, A Different Twist

2011-02-07T20:26:00.005-06:00

Another surge of Arctic air will invade East Texas on Wednesday, keeping temperatures well below normal and putting wind chill values back in the teens.

While the noticeable dip in our temperatures will be comparable to last week's winter storm, this one will be different for us in one sense: no ice or snow accumulations will be likely this time around.

This is the snow forecast for the state of Texas when the storm moves through on Tuesday night and Wednesday.

For our friends and family in North Texas, Northeast Texas, and Oklahoma, it looks like they will be enduring another 3-8" of snow, with the highest amounts in Oklahoma and extreme North Texas.

We do believe areas as far south as Tyler and Longview will see 2-4" of snow once again, with overall totals tapering off significantly as you head into Lufkin and Nacogdoches.

While most of us may not see snow, we won't avoid the precipitation all together. In fact, we are looking at a cold rain to develop on Wednesday morning over Deep East Texas. This cold rain may mix with sleet, but most of it will be in liquid form as the front moves through.

Our high temperatures on Wednesday will be early in the day, before the cold front blasts through. We will start off near 40°, and then fall throughout the course of the afternoon.

This frigid airmass will then lead to a couple of nights of hard freezes as we head towards the end of the week.

If anything should change with our winter storm, you will get it here first. As always, you can get a detailed forecast and view your webcast by going to our weather page.

Why the Ice and Not the Snow?

2011-02-04T20:57:00.006-06:00

The winter storm that moved through East Texas over the past 24 hours, produced snow, sleet, and freezing rain. This mixed bag gave us a wide variety of snow and sleet totals across the area.

Unfortunately, those of us that wanted snow, received some freezing drizzle and ice instead.

The graphic above shows that the heaviest snowfall occured in northern portions of East Texas, ranging from Palestine to Jacksonville and over to Longview.

For most of us in Deep East Texas, it was a mix of sleet and freezing rain that fell throughout the night and early this morning.

Some people have asked me why we did not see more snow as was forecasted over the past few days.

The answer lies in the temperature profile of the atmosphere. You heard me talk about the difference between freezing rain, sleet, or snow all has to do with how the temperature changes as you go up to 15,000-20,000 feet in the atmosphere.

Anytime the temperature profile is all below freezing (32°), we will get an all snow event.

However, when we see temperatures aloft above freezing, that is when it gets tricky. The diagram illustrates what happened to our temperature profile over East Texas last night.

At about 10,000 feet or so, there was a warm nose that existed. That pocket of warm air melts snowflakes as they fall through the atmosphere. If it is deep enough, the snowflake will melt into a liquid water droplet, also known as rain. If the warm is in not very deep, then sometimes the snowflake will just change to a graupel or sleet pellet.

In our case, that warm layer was present, leading to a mixture of sleet and freezing rain, with very little snow.

Our friends and neighbors to our north had sub-freezing temperatures throughout the entire depth of the atmosphere, and ultimately, another 5-7" of snow.

Small Changes to our Forecast

2011-02-03T20:30:00.004-06:00

After looking over model data all day and discussing the winter storm with other meteorologists, here is the lowdown on what you can expect where you live.

In my last post, we talked about how most of us would see snow, with our southeastern quadrant the most likely areas to receive ice accumulations.

Overall, that same line of thinking is still there, with just some subtle changes in the forecast.

This is an updated image that will be shown tonight at 10pm.

This map shows not only precipitation type, but the wintry precipitation amount as well.

If you live along and north of a Crockett to Nacogdoches to Center line, we are expecting all snow to fall from the sky overnight. The farther north you go, the lower the snowfall. Once you get south of that line, the potential for snow accumulations goes up by a couple more inches.

Meanwhile, we think communities in and near Hemphill, Pineland, Zavalla, Colemesneil, Jasper, and Newton have the potential to see a snow, sleet, and freezing rain mix. With that mixture could come the threat for significant ice accumulations of 0.25-0.50". If that pans out, then roads become icy, power outages become more frequent, and tree limbs are going to snap and fall.

Here's the tricky part. What kind of wintry mix will take place around Corrigan, Lufkin, Nacogdoches, Chireno, Etoile, Huntington, and San Augustine areas? After all, these areas are kind of in between the areas of all snow and the wintry mix of ice, and sleet.

Our line of thinking is that many areas in Angelina and Nacogdoches counties will see mainly snow. However, there could be some sleet and freezing rain mixed in from time to time. How much of the freezing rain that mixes in with the snow will determine how much ice, and ultimately, how treacherous driving conditions will be in these general areas.

As always, make sure to visit our Winter Weather Center on our homepage at ktre.com. We will have all the latest on the warnings and advisories around East Texas. You can also view our live streaming radar and so much more.

Adding to the Cold with a Winter Storm

2011-02-02T20:56:00.004-06:00

Now that our frigid temperatures in place, all we need is a storm system to move overhead to give us winter precipitation. As it turns out, it looks like it will become reality tomorrow night and into the first half of the day on Friday.

An upper level disturbance, or trough of low pressure, will move into the state on Thursday. As it gets closer, we will start to see some snow showers develop.

Our Futurecast computer model shows snow falling overhead on Friday morning at 3am, when many of you will be sound asleep.

It appears the winter precipitation will start Thursday evening, then pick up in coverage and intenstiy after midnight, lasting into the early morning hours on Friday.

If you noticed, I said wintry precipitation. That's because it may not just be snow that falls from the clouds, but some sleet and freezing rain are a possibility as well.

Whereas earlier in the week we thought it might be all snow, it appears now that we could be looking at a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain.

This diagram shows that most areas along and north of a Groveton to Lufkin to San Augustine line will probably receive just all snow.

However, that shade of pink represents where the snow could mix with sleet and freezing rain. If that happens, we would be looking at more significant impacts when it comes to power outages and icing of roadways.

That shade of pink includes areas in our southeastern counties, mainly areas around Zavalla, Colmesneil, Woodville, Jasper, and Pineland.

It should be noted that this area in pink could shift northward with future model runs and changes in the forecast.

If this area of mixed precipitation were to shift further to the north, then it could have a bigger impact on areas in Lufkin and Nacogdoches. These impacts would be icy roads, which would hamper travel, and possible power outages.

Please stay tuned to KTRE-TV and ktre.com for the latest developments on our approaching winter storm.

How Cold it Really Feels!

2011-02-01T17:04:00.003-06:00

In the summer, we say it is not the temperature, but the humidity, that makes it feel so hot and steamy. We measure both by using the heat index as a parameter of how it actually feels to your exposed skin when you step outside.

When a big winter storm roars in like the one today, it is the wind chill which makes it feel so bitterly cold to venture outdoors.

This chart is courtesy of: The National Weather Service

I've attached the wind chill chart, so you can see just how cold it actually feels when you factor both the temperature and wind speeds.

As of this afternoon, our wind chill values are in the teens. This results from temperatures near 30 and winds sustained at 20 mph.

Overnight, winds may be reduced to 10 to 15 mph. However, with lows dropping into the upper teens and low 20's, that will give us wind chill values in the single digits.

Please bundle up and make sure you cover any exposed skin if you are going to be outside for any length of time the next few days.

An Arctic Blast is Just Hours Away

2011-01-31T20:21:00.004-06:00

We have had a couple of cold blasts this winter season, but none quite as cold as what we are going to experience this week.

Before the cold air arrives, we will have to deal with some showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be strong in the early morning hours on Tuesday.

Our Futurecast computer model shows those storms forming ahead of the front as you are commuting into work or school.

Temperatures will actually start out on the mild side in the early morning hours on Tuesday. Most of us will be in the 60's, which is fairly warm for this time of year.

Our Microcast computer model shows that by 8am, residents in Houston county, in and near Grapeland, Crockett and Lovelady, will already be in the 40's. Everyone else further to the east, however, will be in the 60's.

However, once the front moves through your neighborhood, notice

how the temperatures start to plummet. We will see about a twenty degree drop in the temperatures in a matter of hours, courtesy of a very stiff north wind.

As you pick up the kids from school in the mid to late part of the afternoon hours, temperatures will have already dropped into the middle and upper 30's, as indicated by the image on your right.

People have asked me "will we see a wintry mix with this system?" The answer is no. It appears that all the moisture will move out before the really cold air filters into the region.

Brace yourselves for the cold and the wind. Blustery conditions will prevail for most of the week, with temperatures running well below normal for early February.

Keep checking back with us here on our blog and on KTRE-TV. We will keep you posted on our cold blast throughout the week.

It May Be Nice Now, but Next Week?

2011-01-27T20:35:00.004-06:00

Our weather has been rather spectacular for January standards as sunny skies and warmer afternoons have made way for great outdoor weather.

If you have not made plans to get outside and soak up some Vitamin D, you will have a day and a half to do so before the clouds roll back in to East Texas.

Clouds will thicken up and produce rain Saturday night through most of the day on Sunday. Even with the rain, temperatures will stay mild through the upcoming weekend.

However, a blue norther will be moving into the Piney Woods by next Tuesday, as we receive another shot of cold air.

The jetstream, which is the main highway for storms moving across the country, will take a big dip to the south, allowing another surge of cold air to spill into our region.

This cold front will be accompanied by some heavy rain on Tuesday, followed by much colder air for the rest of the week.

There is a slight chance of seeing some wintry precipitation overnight Tuesday and into early Wednesday morning. I want to emphasize the word "slight." Odds are the moisture will move out before the really cold air settles in. Having said that, it will be worth watching as we have several days to monitor the latest computer model runs. Only time will tell.

A Monday Soaker

2011-01-24T20:38:00.004-06:00

Today's soaking rain showers looked all too familiar. After all, it was a week and one day ago where we saw 2-3" fall on several neighborhoods across East Texas. The rain we saw 8 days ago was the same kind of rain we saw today: a slow, steady downpour, allowing the moisture to really soak into the ground soils.

We still have a persistent, steady rain ongoing tonight, all thanks to a surface low along the Gulf coast. Due to our close proximity and an upper level low in North Texas, there is plenty of lift in the atmosphere to give us this much needed rainfall.

Look for the rain to continue overnight, before tapering off by Tuesday morning. As the low pressure center pushes eastward, all the rain and moisture will soon follow.

We may not see much sun Tuesday, but the rain should be gone by late morning. Sunshine will return by mid-week, along with some cooler temperatures.

As promised, here are the rainfall totals from our weather watchers in East Texas. Keep in mind that these were called in around 9:30pm this evening. Some of these totals will be a little low when it is all said and done as another 0.10" to 0.25" is possible overnight.

Another Big Chill Headed for East Texas

2011-01-19T17:03:00.004-06:00

Despite our mild temperatures over the past week, Old Man Winter will make a return to East Texas tomorrow.

A strong cold front will move into the Piney Woods of East Texas shortly after lunchtime. As the front approaches, we may see a few scattered showers, but nothing widespread or heavy.

You will know when the front moves through your neighborhood because of the strong winds that will pick up behind it. We will see winds gust up to 20 to 25 mph late Thursday, making for very blustery conditions.

The strong winds will usher in much colder air into the region, dropping our temperature values to below normal for the rest of the week and lasting through much of the weekend.

Look for our highs tomorrow to top out near 60, but Friday, that will be a different story.

Highs for most of us will be in the 40's, with many areas not getting above 50°. The good news, though, is that at least the sun will be out. It will just be a cold sunshine.

Ask and You Shall Receive

2011-01-17T20:50:00.005-06:00

It was a soaker this weekend, but the steady, persistent rain showers was exactly what we needed.

Anytime you are in a drought (like we are now), a slow and steady rain is the best kind to receive as it allows the moisture to soak into the parched ground soils.

Rainfall totals were rather impressive, as many areas picked up well over 2". Some even received 3" and some change. Considering the rain accumulated over a 36 hour period, it allowed the drains to absorb the water with relative ease.

Here are rainfall totals as reported from our always observant and dedicated weather watchers. Take a look at the images below to see how much rain fell where you live.

We will see a break in the rain on Tuesday and Wednesday, before a strong cold front provides us with more showers by Thursday.

Keep The Umbrellas Handy This Weekend

2011-01-14T20:00:00.005-06:00

As we start to thaw out from the winter cold, temperatures will start to moderate this weekend, getting us back to where we should be for mid-January.

With the "not as cold" air in place, moisture will start to return to East Texas this weekend. This will keep the thicker clouds in place, and not allow any sunshine to peak through.

While we will start off the weekend on a dry note, it will end far different.

An upper level disturbance (18,000 ft.) will move through the state late Saturday through the day on Sunday. This disturbance will bring us a good chance for some rain showers, especially on Sunday. The image to your left is our in house Microcast computer model. It shows widespread light to moderate showers moving through on Sunday. While we won't see heavy thunderstorms, some of the rain could be heavy at times.

With a severe to extreme drought still in place for all of East Texas, this batch of moisture is exactly what the doctor ordered. Even though the rainfall will be distrubuted throughout the day, it will be a nice, soaking rain. Those are the best kind to get in order to moisten up the soils and vegetation.

In terms of rainfall potential, the graphic on the left shows one half to one inch of rain is likely to fall where you live this weekend. Some areas could even get more than that, depending upon where the heavier rain bands set up.

Remember that you can view our Storm Tracker Live Doppler Network streaming live on our weather page this weekend. It would be wise to check it frequently, so you won't be caught off guard.

Week of Freezing Temperatures Nearly Over

2011-01-13T16:56:00.004-06:00

After being in the deep freeze all week long, there is a light at the end of the tunnel. While it may not be all that bright, it will turn on, nonetheless, and allow for a very slow warm-up.

We will see our last night of twenty degree temperatures tonight, but it won't be as cold as this morning.

The main reason we will be a little warmer tonight is due to the shield of clouds which have overspread East Texas this afternoon.

At night, the clouds act as a blanket, trapping in any heat we have at the surface. Just think about when you snuggle up under a comforter at night. The reason it keeps you warm is because it traps y0ur body heat. The clouds act the very same way when it comes to how cold temperatures drop overnight. This time, it will help us out by a few degrees.

Instead of falling into the lower 20's, we will only fall into the upper 20's, about 3-5 degrees warmer thanks to the cloud cover.

It will still be cold enough that you will want to bring the pets inside, keep the plants covered, and make sure your neighboors have a warm place to stay.

The good news is after tonight, our low temperatures will fall into the lower 30's on Saturday morning, and will be near 40 by Sunday morning.

Our high temperatures will slowly moderate as well this weekend, but not enough to warrant a return to t-shirts and shorts.

Hard Freeze Warnings Posted, Likely to Stay for Awhile

2011-01-11T20:22:00.005-06:00

An Arctic outbreak has invaded most of the country, including us here in Deep East Texas. As a result, we will be in store for some very hard freezes over the next few nights, with tonight being the coldest.

Here are the forecasted low temperatures overnight where you live. Generally, most areas in our KTRE viewing area will dip down into the teens, with the lone exception being parts of Polk, Tyler, Jasper, and Newton counties. Even then, areas around Barnum, Chester, Livingston, Woodville, and Colmesneil will still fall into the lower 20's.

With the frigid airmass in place, we will not warm up much during the next few days, as we only reach the lower to middle 40's.

As a result of the frigid weather, we have Hard Freeze Warnings in effect for all of East Texas through Wednesday morning.

That will more than likely be extended as we will see a few more nights with lows dropping down into the lower and middle 20's.

A reminder that with this cold blast lasting for a few more days, make sure you continue to take care of the four P's of protection: the pets, pipes, plants, and people.

Also, be careful with space heaters and make sure your vehicle has plenty of anti-freeze.

We should finally start to thaw out by next weekend, but even then, we are only talking about getting back to normal temperatures for mid-January.

Please stay warm.

Turning Wetter Followed by a Cold Blast

2011-01-06T20:35:00.005-06:00

It has been well documented that with our La Nina climate pattern holding firm, it has been warmer and drier than normal.
That is going to take a backseat in the days ahead, however, as a strong storm system moves into the Deep South. This storm will provide us with some soaking rain showers followed by the coldest air we have experienced so far this winter season.

Our next storm will move into the state on Sunday. Due to its delayed arrival, Saturday will be partly cloudy and dry.

By Sunday, a strong surface low will combine with an upper level low to give us widespread rain showers. Some of the rain on Sunday will be heavy at times. Not only will it be wet, but it will be a cold and raw day, as temperatures only make the middle 40's for highs.

With cold air wrapping around the low pressure area, it will be cold enough to support a wintry mix with snow possible in portions of Northeast Texas, Southwest Arkansas, and extreme northern portions of Louisiana. Even though it will be cold and wet, our temperature profile will be just a little to warm to see any white stuff fall from the sky in Deep East Texas.

After the rain moves out, a surge of Arctic air will be spilling into the Southern Plains, bringing with it some very cold temperatures.

The surge of cold air will come in late Monday and early Tuesday. A big trough, or dip in the Jetstream, will allow that cold blast to spill all the way down to the Gulf of Mexico.

As a result, temperatures most of next week will not make it out of the 40's and on Wednesday, we may be hard pressed to get out of the 30's. At night, low temperatures will bottom out in the lower to middle 20's.

With hard freezes next week and with it staying below freezing for several hours, now would be a good time to wrap your pipes and protect your home from the brutally cold weather.

Keep in mind that rain is moving in on Sunday, so I would wrap your pipes on Friday or Saturday, while the weather is still tolerable.

Keep it tuned to KTRE-TV. We will continue to give you updates on our forecast and the cold blast heading our way next week. You can also follow us on Twitter at twitter.com/KTREwx.

2010 Was One of the Driest on Record

2011-01-04T22:49:00.002-06:00

After doing some number crunching, here is a look at just how dry things have been this past year.

In December, our meager rainfall amount of 0.86" was the second driest December of all time.

Driest Decembers: 1.) 1980-----0.61"
2.) 2010----0.86"

For the entire 2010 calendar year, we received 30.01" of rain at the Angelina County Airport. Dating back to 1947 when rainfall recording started, this past year was the third driest of all time. You have to go back to 1988 to find the last time we received less rain from January 1st through December 31st.

Driest Years on Record: 1.) 1963----26.49"
2.) 1988----29.65"
3.) 2010----30.01"

The rainfall we are receiving tonight and the rain expected over the weekend will help out our drought conditions, but we have a long way to go before things improve for us in East Texas.

I'm Back, and So is The Rain

2010-12-28T14:51:00.004-06:00

After spending a week away on vacation, I will be returning to the tv set on Wednesday, just in time to track some beneficial showers and thunderstorms across East Texas.

I enjoyed my vacation, and more importantly, spending time with my wonderful family back in my hometown, The Woodlands.

While I was away, we did receive some beneficial rain on Christmas Eve night.

We now have another shot at picking up some soaking rain showers starting later tonight and lasting through most of the day on Wednesday.

Several of our computer models suggest we could receive anywhere from 0.50" to 1.0" of rain, with some isolated spots receiving even more.

With a severe to extreme drought draped over the Piney Woods, we will take every single drop of rain we can get at this point.

Look for temperatures to stay on the mild side, before another good chance of rain comes in on New Year's Eve. The rain chance on Friday will come with a cold front, slated to cool us down in time for the new year.

Break Out the Jackets for Christmas

2010-12-21T20:03:00.005-06:00

After experiencing record high temperatures on Tuesday, we will finally get back to reality as Old Man Winter makes a return to East Texas.

On Christmas Eve, part of the storm system currently affecting California will pull eastward. As a trough of low pressure moves through on Friday, it will drag a strong cold front into the Piney Woods, just in time for Santa's arrival.

Along the front, we might actually be able to squeeze out some rain showers this time around. Considering the fact we are in a severe drought, let's hope that we receive some showers to help out the parched lawns and vegetation.

Once the front moves through, winds will pick up out of the north, ushering in a much colder airmass.

Look for a cold sunshine on Saturday, with highs expected to not even get out of the 40's. When you combine the air temperature with the breezy north winds, we will have wind chill values in the upper 30's. Brrrr.

This colder weather should put all of us in the holiday spirit.

I'd like to take the time to wish you and your family a very Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays.

Welcoming Winter with a Lunar Eclipse

2010-12-20T20:00:00.004-06:00

If you are a star gazer or like astronomy, then you may want to stay up extra late tonight. That's because the sun, earth, and moon will align themselves to form a lunar eclipse.

As the moon orbits the earth, it will pass through the earth's shadow, giving way to a full moon and a lunar eclipse. Often times, the moon will have a copper red to orange-like appearance if skies are clear and visibilites are high.

That, in turn, could be a problem for us tonight in East Texas. Clouds will be present and we could even see some areas of patchy fog form after midnight. If either of these scenarios happen, then most of us will not be able to see the moon and its bright appearance.

The best window of opportunity to view the full moon will be from 1-3am local time.

This lunar eclipse will welcome in winter, which officially arrives at 5:38pm Tuesday afternoon.

That occurs when the sun is directly over the Tropic of Capricorn in the Southern Hemisphere, giving us the shortest day of the year.

While winter arrives tomorrow night, it won't be feeling like it as temperatures will be running several degrees above normal for mid-December.

Cold Fronts Providing No Rainfall, Lead to Worsening Drought

2010-12-16T20:17:00.005-06:00

For quite some time, we have been talking about a roller coaster ride when it comes to our temperatures.

It will go from unseasonably warm to bitter cold in just a matter of hours, only to warm up just a few days later.

This up and down ride is not uncommon due to the time of year we are in. With an active Jetstream, we typically see cold fronts move across the country every 3-4 days.

It is along those cold fronts where we typically pick up a majority of our rainfall this time of year. As you well know, we have been hard pressed to get a drop out of Mother Nature when these fronts arrive into East Texas.

With very little rainfall over the past few months, the drought conditions continue to worsen.

In the updated drought conditions released today, most of East Texas has been upgraded to a stage 2 "Severe drought."

Portions of western Houston and Trinity counties have been upgraded to a stage 3 "Extreme drought." Keep in mind that there are four stages of drought, with a stage 4 drought being the worst.

With crop and pasture losses likely at this point, we need rain and lots of it. Otherwise, we could be looking at water restrictions put in place rather quickly.

A Few Flurries and Staying in the Deep Freeze

2010-12-07T20:22:00.006-06:00

A fast moving upper level disturbance will move through East Texas overnight, providing us with light rain and perhaps a few sleet pellets and snow flurries.

Anytime you have a system move over temperatures which are near freezing at the surface, the talk of a wintry mix seems to come to the table.

This system will dump some snow over parts of the Arklatex and northern Louisiana. Accumulations in those areas could be as high as 1-2."

We may see a few flurries and sleet pellets mix in with the rain, but for the most part, most of our precipitation will be in liquid form.

After this system moves out, another freeze will set up for Thursday morning, before a brief warm up takes place to end the week.

I use the word brief because several computer models are showing a surge of Arctic air spilling southward and into the Southeast United States by Sunday.

This cold blast will be due to a huge trough (dip in the Jetstream) making it all the way down to the Gulf of Mexico.

If you watch our weathercasts, we like to show the Jetstream features whenever it helps drive home the weather story.

The Jetstream is a fast moving current of air that separates cold air from the warm air. It also is the main storm track for most of our storm systems across the country.

The image above shows the coldest air just missing us off to the east. Even if this happens, we will still see some of our coldest weather this late fall season surge into East Texas over the weekend.

If the Jetstream were to configure itself a little farther to the west, then it may get even colder than what are forecast numbers indicate at this point.

Nevertheless, it looks like Old Man Winter may be getting an early start on winter in December.

Drought Conditions Worsen

2010-12-02T19:56:00.004-06:00

I like to be the bearer of good news; however, I must also tell you the news you sometimes don't like to hear.

It is no secret that for the past month and a half, most of East Texas has been placed in a "Stage 1" moderate drought. That is the first of four stages of drought with a stage 4 being the worst.

As you can see, things have gotten worse as areas from Lufkin to Crockett and over towards Corrigan are now in a "Stage 2" severe drought. There is also a severe drought for eastern portions of Sabine, Newton, and Shelby counties as well.

The lack of rainfall (13" deficit) and dry conditions continues to put us in a deep hole when it comes to catching up on rainfall.

What these drought conditions mean is that water shortages will become more common over the next several weeks. In addition, crop and pasture losses will be likely as well.

Our extended forecast shows virtually no decent chances for rain as there will be limited moisture for future cold fronts to work with.

East Texas Weather is Constant Change These Days

2010-11-29T21:16:00.005-06:00

I hope each of you had a wonderful Thanksgiving holiday. While it was a holiday for most of us, it has been anything but one for meteorologists over the past couple of days.

We went from record highs last week, to freezing temperatures and a cold snap, back to warmer weather and rain on Monday. This is the time of year when we see the weather change very frequently, as cold fronts and active storm systems move rapidly across the country.

We saw another storm system affect us earlier today, bringing us several rounds of showers and thunderstorms. The images above show rainfall amounts from our awarding winning Weather Watchers in Deep East Texas. Most areas did pick up anywhere from a quarter to one half inch, with some locations receiving over an inch of rain in spots.

This rain is all ahead of another cold front which will drop our temperatures once more on Tuesday. If you are planning on heading out the the City of Lufkin Christmas Parade on Tuesday evening, make sure to bundle up the kids. It will feel like the weather we had over the weekend, which was far different than what we experienced today.